Don't be surprised if... McMillan finds end zone, Judkins finishes top 3 in rushing

Each week in the NFL is its own story -- full of surprises, both positive and negative -- and fantasy football managers must decide what to believe and what not to believe moving forward. Perhaps we can help. If any of these thoughts come true ... don't be surprised!

NOTE: All mentions of fantasy points are for PPR formats, unless otherwise noted.

Let the doubters keep doubting when it comes to Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield. He finished last season as fantasy's No. 4 QB, behind Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Two of those fellows will not be repeating their achievement because of injury. Mayfield enters Sunday's game against the San Francisco 49ers third in points among QBs, behind Allen and Patrick Mahomes, and the Bucs' terrific rookie WR Emeka Egbuka is already a star.

Don't be surprised if ... Mayfield and Egbuka each finish second at their position in fantasy scoring this season

I must admit to being a bit surprised at Mayfield's tepid rankings on ESPN and other sites this week. What more must we see to rank him better? Mayfield is not accumulating passing yards or touchdown passes like he did last season, but throwing only one interception in five games is important. The Egbuka addition has been critical. Mayfield's yards per attempt is up, and Egbuka is one of three wide receivers averaging 20 PPR points per game. It all looks sustainable.

The 49ers are in the middle of the pack in preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks and wide receivers, so expect another great outing from this duo. How about this: Expect greatness every week! Some may wish to float Egbuka's name in fantasy trades, since veteran Mike Evans (hamstring) should return to the lineup soon. Nah, that makes things better for everyone. Who can stop this offense with Egbuka, Evans, Chris Godwin Jr. and two solid running backs? Trade for Mayfield and Egbuka with confidence.

Other QB thoughts that shouldn't surprise:

• Why won't the exalted Mahomes finish as fantasy's No. 2 QB over Mayfield (presuming Josh Allen is first)? The running numbers are great, but unlike with Allen, they don't feel sustainable. Mahomes, 30, has never rushed for 400 yards in a season or surpassed four rushing touchdowns. He is currently pacing for 646 rushing yards and double-digit touchdown runs. This can't be what the Chiefs desire. RBs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt probably can't turn their ordinary (at best) seasons around, and perhaps it isn't all their fault, but let's see a trade! The Saints' Alvin Kamara would look good in a Chiefs uniform, eh?

• Nobody would recommend new Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Flacco even in a superflex league, but I still can't fathom this offense will struggle at the level it did with backup Jake Browning. The offensive line must improve, give Flacco reasonable time and open holes for RB Chase Brown. Flacco, 40, is at least more accurate than Browning, and he still throws a nice deep ball. Tee Higgins is not going to be a WR5 after this week. He is someone to target, for Flacco and fantasy managers. Ja'Marr Chase and Higgins are the highest-paid WR duo in football, so get them the ball! It also says something that the Bengals dealt for Flacco and not Giants backups Russell Wilson or Jameis Winston. Surely the Giants can part with one.

• Seattle's Sam Darnold averages 16.3 fantasy points per game, 21st among quarterbacks. OK, so that's not awesome, but if we remove Week 1 against the 49ers, it's 19.06 PPG. Last season, Darnold averaged 18.1 points for the Minnesota Vikings, 11th at the position, and everyone praised him and relied on him. I am not saying Darnold ends up a borderline QB1 this season, but I sure am thinking about it because this offense has a top-5 WR in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a pair of solid running backs and an underrated tight end in AJ Barner, too.

Don't be surprised if ... Cleveland Browns RB Quinshon Judkins finishes top 3 in rushing yards

Judkins missed Week 1 due to his contract situation and not an injury, and since then he has turned 18 rushes per game into 87 rushing yards per game. There aren't many running backs with this volume and production. Judkins, still available in more than 10% of ESPN standard leagues (how is this possible?), appears a better bet than Las Vegas Raiders rookie Ashton Jeanty to accumulate numbers, though I like Jeanty and think he has a big Week 6, too. Judkins surely gets to run behind a better O-line, and he averages 4.8 yards per rush. He breaks tackles. He is bigger than Jeanty. Judkins is the safer RB1.

Other RB thoughts that shouldn't surprise:

• Until I see the Carolina Panthers definitively share the running back touches between a healthy Chuba Hubbard and newcomer Rico Dowdle, I guess I won't really believe it. Hubbard (calf) may or may not play this week. Dowdle ran all over the feeble Miami Dolphins for 206 yards and a touchdown in Week 5. Doesn't this say more about the Dolphins? Everyone and their mail carrier added Dowdle this week, as if his 32.4 points will become a regular occurrence. He certainly has revenge on his mind against his former team, the Dallas Cowboys, this week, and again, not a great defense at all. Dowdle should perform well! After this week, though, be cautious here.

• It stinks that Los Angeles Chargers rookie Omarion Hampton (ankle) is out until November, but I don't think we can assume backups Hassan Haskins or Kimani Vidal replicate his performance. In fact, it may end up looking much like Kansas City's largely irrelevant timeshare. If choosing between them, I would take Haskins first. It reminds me of the Arizona Cardinals, where Michael Carter should get his team's attention near the goal line over Emari Demercado. That's probably Haskins in this situation.

Don't be surprised if ... Carolina Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan gets very vertical on the Dallas Cowboys this week

McMillan averages 11.8 fantasy points per game, which isn't particularly noteworthy, but more people would notice him if he scored a touchdown or two. Entering Week 6, McMillan has the second-most points among WRs without a touchdown (to New England Patriots vet Stefon Diggs), and for most receivers, touchdowns can be arbitrary. That changes against the woeful Cowboys secondary. McMillan is tied for seventh among WRs in targets, as there are no other Panthers stealing from him. This is McMillan's show. The Cowboys can't stop it. McMillan isn't Egbuka as far as rookies go, but if QB Bryce Young develops just a little more, he should be a WR2 option.

Other WR/TE thoughts that shouldn't surprise:

• Speaking of Diggs, it was great to see him light up his former team, the Buffalo Bills, on Sunday night, but I doubt he continues sailing along at an 85% catch rate for long. Though his yards per catch is up from prior seasons, Diggs looks like anything but a game breaker. There isn't much burst coming off last season's ACL tear. Of course, Week 1 favorite Kayshon Boutte hasn't done much since then, so it looks like Diggs will get all the volume he desires, and that may be enough. Still, I think TE Hunter Henry, more of a red zone option, ultimately will lead the Drake Maye pass-catching options in PPR points.

• Part of the reason I ranked Washington Commanders QB Jayden Daniels as the No. 1 QB this week -- over Mayfield and Los Angeles Rams ace Matthew Stafford (with the matchup of the week against the Baltimore Ravens) -- is he should be able to throw for as many yards as he wants on the Chicago Bears. That is good news for WR Deebo Samuel, who is getting nearly all the targets without Terry McLaurin (quad), and while most are short passes, he is thriving after the catch. This should be another big week for him. Perhaps McLaurin suits up, but it would be tough to trust him.

• Indianapolis Colts rookie Tyler Warren leads tight ends with 307 receiving yards. Buffalo's Dalton Kincaid is only 20 yards behind in second place, and he has several more touchdown grabs. They have the same amount of fantasy points. Why does Warren get ranked in the top 5 every week, but Kincaid is barely top 20? Look, I prefer Warren, too, but Kincaid needs more love. He leads the Bills in receiving yards, and by a lot!

• It doesn't look like the 49ers will have TE George Kittle this week, but Jake Tonges is more than a sleeper option against a Buccaneers defense that permitted multi-touchdown games to tight ends (Philly's Dallas Goedert, Seattle's AJ Barner) during the past fortnight. Tight end is fun this season, and it goes 20 deep at times, whereas last season, it was tough to find 10 reasonable options some weeks. You may not need to stream Tonges, but you can.