Second-half predictions: Who will win tight division races, MVP and the Super Bowl?

The first half of the 2025 NFL season featured something for everyone.

Competitive balance ruled. Thirteen teams enter Week 9 with at least five wins. Seven teams that missed the postseason in 2024 have a .500-or-better record this season. Close games were easy to find. About 64% of games (78 of 121) have been within one score (eight points) in the fourth quarter, and 46% (56 of 121) were decided by seven points or fewer. And if you like blowouts, Week 8 gave you that. The Ravens were the surprise early flop. The Titans, Saints, Jets, Dolphins and more fueled the tank-obsessed fans.

At quarterback, we have the star turn (Drake Maye), the star-crazed comeback story (Dak Prescott), the curious case (Tua Tagovailoa) and the All-Rockports team (Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers). And for those who love to complain about officiating, well, there's plenty of that during the weekly 1 p.m. slate. Save a few clear-cut favorites, surprises are coming in several divisions. Even so, early contenders for Super Bowl LX at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California, on Feb. 8 are in.

ESPN marked the occasion by talking to a number of NFL executives, attempting to gauge where insiders believe certain division races are headed, as well as award contenders, ascending rookies and the two teams that will still be playing football in February. Here's what decision-makers around the NFL are saying about the second half of the season.

Jump to exec intel on:
AFC East | NFC West | AFC West | NFC North
Playoff sleepers | Top draft pick | MVP
Breakouts | Super Bowl

Are the Patriots for real?

A convenient talking point leaguewide centers on whether the Patriots are back and if their momentum in the AFC East is sustainable. The consensus: Yes, the Patriots are for real, but not real enough to knock off Buffalo just yet.

"I think the quarterback is real," an AFC executive said of Drake Maye. "He keeps getting better. He has an excellent OC [Josh McDaniels] who will get every drop out of that offense. And Vrabes [Mike Vrabel] has them playing good team football. I'm not quite ready to pass the torch now."

In particular, Maye's pocket presence and ability to create instinctively without an elite supporting cast have stood out to evaluators. Added a separate AFC exec: "I think they are a year away from being really good. The defense isn't all the way there yet. But the offensive line is showing promise and the quarterback is picking things up really fast. He's not close to his ceiling."

Considering Maye ranks fourth in QBR and has the third-best betting odds to win MVP (per ESPN Bet), that's high praise.

The Bills are leaving the door open for New England. ESPN's Football Power Index has them at 50.7% to win the AFC East, while the Pats are at 49.2%. To win a sixth consecutive divisional crown, Buffalo will need to tighten up in a few areas.

"Their defense has looked off at times," the second exec said. "Uncharacteristic of them. I think they will get it cleaned up, but they need to. With [defensive tackle] Ed Oliver going out, I'd be concerned with the lack of top-end talent on that side of the ball, but they typically play good team defense under [Sean McDermott]. The offense should be fine. Feels like they are at their best when running things through James Cook right now."

Seahawks generating buzz

The league's extreme parity makes it easy to lose sight of what the team in the Pacific Northwest is doing. It shouldn't.

Seattle is dangerous. Head coach Mike Macdonald knows how to maximize his personnel on defense, Jaxon Smith-Njigba ranks first in receiving yards (819) despite already having a bye, and Sam Darnold's 9.1 yards per pass attempt leads the NFL.

"Their interior [defensive] line is so good that you can't just run at them," an NFL coordinator said. "You almost have to play with tempo just to try to open things up. They are really good up front."

One area of weakness is cornerback, which is depleted because of injuries. Otherwise, the defense is stout. Macdonald is considered, quite easily, one of the top defensive minds in the game.

But Seattle hasn't won the NFC West since 2020.

"I think that changes this year," the coordinator said. "They are the most complete team in the west. Sam Darnold is really taking to [Klint Kubiak's] system and the running game has more potential than what it's shown."

Seattle ranks 21st in rushing offense, but evaluators could see that improving in the season's second half. Kenneth Walker III is 23rd in rushing attempts (95). Seattle would be justified in increasing his workload because of his talent, and his 4.5 yards per carry easily outpaces the 2.8 of backup Zach Charbonnet.

The wild, wild (AFC) West

This feels like a recycled bit: a divisional team plays well early, looks poised to knock off the Chiefs, only for Kansas City to turbocharge a run and lap the AFC West field ... to the tune of nine consecutive divisional titles.

But this season is at least worthy of a conversation, evaluators say, because of the presence of two playoff-caliber teams in the Broncos (6-2) and Chargers (5-3). All three teams snuck into the wild card last season, and this time, both Sean Payton and Jim Harbaugh seem to have more options with which to work.

"I do think the Chargers can do it this time," a high-ranking AFC personnel evaluator said. "Justin Herbert looks really comfortable in the offense, they have weapons, they are well-coached, and I don't think they are panicked at running back [to add at the trade deadline] because Omarion Hampton will be back."

Similarly, Denver is considered one of the more complete teams in the AFC, and the odds will have the Broncos sitting at 8-2 leading into a Week 11 matchup with Kansas City in Denver.

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All of this comes with an important caveat: The Chiefs are still really good and seem to be peaking.

"They are going to be right there again," an NFC executive said. "[Patrick] Mahomes is back on track."

Lions or Packers in the North?

Arguably the league's most talented division will be a beast to conquer come December. The Nov. 27 matchup between the two favorites, Detroit and Green Bay, only deepens the intrigue. The Packers beat the Lions convincingly 27-13 in Week 1.

Still, a slight edge goes to Detroit in the eyes of evaluators.

"They might have the best overall roster," an NFC executive said. "Once they start leaning on you offensively with [Jahmyr] Gibbs, they are imposing. And the defense is starting to play better."

Evaluators agree that Detroit needs at least one more cornerback, a timely assessment entering the trade deadline.

Green Bay has Jordan Love playing at an MVP-caliber level, a roster well-stocked with young talent and the ultimate closer in Micah Parsons, who is taking over games in the fourth quarters.

"They will be right there and might be able to win that division, but I need to see more consistency," an AFC scout said. "They've been flat in a few games. That defense flies around and is really physical."

Don't count out these two struggling teams

Baltimore remains the most curious case of the season, leaving Thursday night's win over Miami at 3-5. Heck, yours truly picked them to win the Super Bowl.

Evaluators see a team that's too talented to fall flat for an entire season.

"I know the defense has been rough, but there's a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and you have to bet on Lamar [Jackson] winning consistently in the regular season," a high-ranking personnel evaluator with an NFL team said.

The Ravens had been waiting for that culture win, something to get their edge back. Perhaps they found it with Sunday's 30-16 win over Chicago that reset a struggling defense. Helping Baltimore's case is a very winnable division. Cincinnati and Cleveland are both down and Pittsburgh (4-3) has lost two straight.

In the AFC South, there's another team that people around the league aren't giving on up quite yet. The Texans are 3-4 and third in the division, but they have upside.

"Their defense is one of the most physical in the league -- a really tough out," an NFC executive said. "It's really the offensive line that's been holding them back. If they can get settled down there, you can see what C.J. Stroud can do."

Stroud showed glimpses of that ability in Week 8. San Francisco didn't sack Stroud, and he utilized a clean pocket for 318 passing yards and two touchdown passes.

Who's angling for No. 1 draft pick?

A beautifully tragic three-way race to be the league's worst team could persist through December. The Saints and Jets, both 1-7, have compelling cases. But none is stronger than that of the Titans (1-7), whose ghastly minus-120 point differential leads the NFL by a wide margin.

Selecting No. 1 would give Tennessee the option to select the best player in the field. What if that's a quarterback? Of course, the Titans just made that call in April with Cam Ward. The team still believes in Ward, who has nine more games to redirect his shaky start. The Titans know Ward has a subpar supporting cast and never gets to play with an early lead, thus increasing the urge to force difficult throws. But if the shaky play continues, the Titans could face a tough decision. We're not saying that's what they are doing, just pointing out that path might be available to them.

"It's an enviable position to be in because, if they believe in Ward, they can acquire more draft capital by trading out of No. 1," an AFC personnel evaluator said. "The roster is not good. They need more picks to rebuild that thing. But if you're uncertain about Ward, then you're forced to gauge his trade value, which is a difficult thing."

As it stands, the Titans probably would stick with Ward and trade out of the first pick. But a lot can happen in two months.

The Jets or Saints picking No. 1 would seemingly be an easy call -- take a quarterback and don't look back.

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In Week 7, ESPN draft analyst Jordan Reid mocked Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza to the Jets at No. 1. But Oregon's Dante Moore or South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers would also theoretically be options at the top of Round 1 for a QB-needy team.

At the moment, the Football Power Index has New Orleans with a league-high 33.9% chance to pick No. 1, with the Titans (24.6%) and Jets (16.4%) right behind.

Jonathan Taylor carrying Colts to the playoffs ... and winning an MVP?

MVP has morphed into almost solely a quarterback award. A passer has won it for 12 straight years. Last season, Saquon Barkley rushed for 2,000 yards and finished a distant third in the voting behind Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

So it feels quite possible that Adrian Peterson (2012) will be the last non-quarterback MVP of our generation. But some around the league hope that's not the case based on the way Taylor is playing for Indianapolis.

Taylor's 14 total touchdowns through eight games puts him on a pace just shy of LaDanian Tomlinson's NFL record of 31 scores (28 rushing) in 2006. Tomlinson won the MVP with a convincing 76% voting share that season.

"[Taylor is] playing like a Hall of Famer right now," an NFL coordinator said.

Added an AFC executive: "I would vote for him if I had one. That offensive line has been dominant, and once the hole is there, Taylor is elite at the second level."

Still, Taylor's MVP campaign is shaky at best. Other names that come up often in this conversation are Mahomes, Maye, Love and Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield. ESPN Bet has Taylor at +1300 odds, well behind Mahomes, Allen and Maye.

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Watch these ascending rookies with sneaky fantasy value

In trying to avoid the obvious names -- Tampa Bay receiver Emeka Egbuka is obviously really good, for example -- here are some under-the-radar rookies who teams expect to produce in the second half.

• Tennessee wide receiver Chimere Dike: An excellent returner, and now that Tennessee is featuring him in the offense, he's showing "reliable hands, speed and route running," per an AFC personnel official.

• Houston running back Woody Marks: He's still a part-time player with 214 rushing yards on 57 carries, but as one NFL personnel evaluator pointed out, the Texans should make him the lead back. "Needs 14 to 16 touches per game," the evaluator said. "Lateral quickness and burst, good pass catcher, though lacks long speed."

• Jacksonville wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter: He has started slowly on offense, but "I think he'll go off in the second half," per an AFC executive. "He wasn't running many real routes early, despite making plays when he had opportunities. Showed more of what he can do in recent weeks and I think he can be special."

• Cleveland tight end Harold Fannin Jr.: The do-it-all third-round pick is considered "a good offensive fit, good separation and ball skills, sneaky RAC ability," per a tenured NFC scout.

Super Bowl picks to keep an eye on

In what could be Matthew Stafford's last season in Los Angeles, he has the Rams primed for a run through a wide-open NFC. "He's playing really well, they can throw or run with equal effectiveness, their receivers are elite and the defensive front gets after you," an NFC personnel evaluator said.

The trendy Super Bowl prediction among those consulted: Rams over Chiefs.

Also mentioned as Super Bowl contenders were the Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles.