Why aren't the Packers dominating everyone? Solak's Week 9 lessons, plus trade deadline bingo

Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season is in the books, and it was a week of upsets. The Panthers handed the Packers their second loss of the season, and the Steelers did the same to the Colts. The former is The Big Thing topic for this week's column -- how do the Packers keep suffering these embarrassing losses? -- but there's a key nugget about the latter in the Next Ben Stats section, too.

Every Tuesday, I'll spin the previous week of NFL action forward, looking at what the biggest storylines mean and what comes next. We'll seek measured reactions to everyone's overreactions, celebrate the exciting stuff that nobody is appreciating and highlight what you might have missed Sunday and Monday. There will be film. There will be stats (a whole section of them). And there will be fun.

Let's start with the Packers.

Jump to a section:
Big Thing: Why aren't the Packers dominating?
Trade watch: Let's play deadline bingo
Second Take: J.J. McCarthy hasn't turned the corner
Mailbag: Answering questions from ... you
Next Ben Stats: Wild Week 9 stats
Monday Night Mystery: Jones and the TBD trade

The Big Thing: Where is the Packers' dominance we were promised?

Every week, this column will kick off with one wide look at a key game, player or trend from the previous slate of NFL action. What does it mean for the rest of the season? This week, we tackle the Packers, who have been upset twice this season.

The Packers' loss to the Panthers on Sunday was the worst in franchise history.

Well, not really. (Looking at you, 2014 NFC Championship Game). But by Vegas expectations, this is tied for the biggest upset loss for the Packers since the 1970 merger, as Green Bay was favored by 13.5 points against Carolina.

The Packers are the largest favorites to lose outright since the Titans beat the Dolphins as 14.5-point underdogs in Week 14 of the 2023 season. The Packers are the only team in the NFL this season to have lost two games in which they were more than a touchdown favorite -- their Week 3 loss to the Browns as a 7.5-point favorite is the other such game.

The performance against the Browns somewhat made sense. The Packers were still onboarding edge rusher Micah Parsons and had just lost Jayden Reed (collarbone) indefinitely the previous week. The Browns' defense was seriously good, too: a top-5 unit by every metric. Even then, it took a Jordan Love interception with under four minutes remaining, then a blocked Brandon McManus field goal, for the Packers to lose.

So what about the Panthers? Their offense and defense were both average entering Week 9, and Carolina walked into Green Bay missing multiple starting offensive linemen. Panthers QB Bryce Young was 2-15 as a starter on the road. Yet, the Packers trailed for nearly the entire second half, tying the score with 2:32 remaining before immediately surrendering the game-sealing field goal drive.

The Packers suffering two of the most disappointing losses this season is as much a story of our expectations as it is of their shortcomings. When they acquired Parsons on Aug. 28, they felt like a contender, adding a game-changing player on defense. At ESPN Bet, they went from 20-1 to win the Super Bowl to 14-1 immediately after the trade, 11-1 before kickoff in Week 1 and 8-1 after they beat the Lions in the opener.

After Sunday's loss, the Packers are still 9-1 to win the Super Bowl. But what was a nagging doubt after the loss to the Browns has grown into a screaming one after a 40-40 tie against the Cowboys, a late-game win over the Cardinals, a quiet first half against the Steelers and Sunday's loss to the Panthers. If the Parsons trade was supposed to make the Packers into a juggernaut ... why haven't we seen that happen yet?

To a degree, the results against the Panthers are aberrative. The Packers had only seven drives, as Carolina wisely shortened the game with a slow offensive operation. The Panthers snapped the ball with minimal time left on a running clock (42.5 seconds of game clock per play), inched their way down the field with the rushing attack and went for it on fourth downs.

The best defense against can often limit a high-powered offense like the Packers' unit. The second-best defense? Playing deep zone coverage and forcing the Packers to inch their way, as well: The Panthers were in zone on 89.5% of their snaps against Green Bay.

Of those seven Packers drives, six crossed the Panthers' 25-yard line -- yet the Packers scored only 13 points. In the past 10 years, only 11 teams have scored fewer points on at least six drives across the opponent's 25. There were many reasons for the low-scoring output: a Savion Williams fumble, a missed field goal in gusty winds, a third-and-3 TFL creating a fourth-and-8 disaster. Run this game back 100 times, and the Packers score more than 13 points in 99 iterations.

Packers coach Matt LaFleur spoke about the Panthers' defensive approach in his postgame news conference. When asked about Love's downfield interception, LaFleur said: "I think we all -- and I'm talking about myself as much as anybody -- when we get into these types of games where it's just about consistent execution ... you can't chase the big play. They were playing soft zone the majority of the game and making us earn and consistently move the ball, and eventually, on every drive, almost, we made a mistake."

Here's the play LaFleur is referencing. This is a designed shot play: two tight ends, under center play-action, Watson on the big post with Romeo Doubs behind on the over route.

pic.twitter.com/fxH4UEcdUs

It's not a great play. You can tell LaFleur is frustrated with his call -- why go for a shot play when the Panthers have been giving you free access to underneath throws? Did he get impatient, looking for a huge spark to win the game with one throw?

There's also a question for Love, who could have bought time to throw Doubs on the over route -- a preferable matchup, with only a linebacker sinking underneath the route -- or checked it down to the late-releasing tight end.

So, this was a bad play, but Love was solid at pushing the ball downfield despite the Panthers' defensive approach: 3-of-5 on throws 20-plus yards. One incompletion was the pick, but another was a catchable ball/maybe a drop from Matthew Golden.

The deep ball is an inextricable part of Love's game and LaFleur's corresponding offensive philosophy. Since the 2023 season, 12.8% of Love's passes have traveled at least 20 yards downfield -- the fourth-highest rate, behind only Will Levis, Anthony Richardson Sr. and Russell Wilson. But Love and LaFleur can become overly cautious when the Packers are big favorites.

Look at how Love's downfield aggressiveness changes relative to the expectation entering the game. Neither Love nor LaFleur is looking at Vegas spreads during the week and building a game plan around the number, of course -- but if we use the spread as a proxy for how much better we think the Packers are than their opponent, we can see that the downfield aggressiveness vanishes from the Packers' approach. Critically, this wasn't as present when Aaron Rodgers was playing under LaFleur.

But Love averaged 8.1 air yards per attempt Sunday -- farther downfield than we'd expect. After the game, LaFleur wished that their passing game was a little more cautious. "We consistently moved the ball. I mean, nine-play, nine-play, 10-play, 10-play, 13-play, 12-play [drives]. I do think there's a little bit of pressing to get a big play, but when they're not there, you can't chase it."

This dichotomy is not unfamiliar. The Chiefs faced this challenge in 2021 and 2022, when opposing defenses almost universally deployed soft shell coverages against their downfield passing attack, demanding the Chiefs string together long, mistake-free drives. We spent much of last September bemoaning the explosion of two-high defenses and the accompanying deflation of the passing game.

But the Packers are not well-suited to the changing tide. This season, only two Packers skill position players have more than 20 yards after the catch over expectation, as calculated by Next Gen Stats. One is running back Josh Jacobs. The other, unsurprisingly, is superstar tight end Tucker Kraft, who tore his ACL in this game and is out for the remainder of the season. Kraft has 109 YACOE this year; the rest of the team has 111 combined.

Love is not used to authoring nine-play, 10-play, 12-play scoring drives. It's not how Watson, Doubs and Golden excel. That sort of offensive approach belongs to teams like the Panthers, who are trying to shorten a game as a 13.5-point underdog. To turn some of those longer drives into quicker ones that end in touchdowns, the Packers need more yards after the catch that only Kraft was providing.

A better running game would also help. Much like in YAC, the Packers are struggling relative to expectation. Jacobs has 29 rushing yards under expectation -- 12th worst among backs this season. Backup Emanuel Wilson is 16 yards below expectation; gadget WR Williams is 15 yards below expectation. The Packers are not producing the additional yards needed to play a ball-control, incremental style of offense with minimal possessions.

"You got to be able to run the football. I think that's been a little bit of an issue, at times," LaFleur said. "If they're going to play soft shell, and you're handing the ball off and getting 2 yards -- not that it was consistently like that, but there were a couple times like that -- you get behind the sticks, and it gets more difficult."

LaFleur gets grief from the Packers' fan base for his commitment to the running game in these instances, and the numbers bear it out. The Packers are fourth in run rate over expectation against two-high shells pre-snap, but average only 4.7 yards per carry on such runs. The league average is 4.9.

This perspective also makes the loss against the Browns even more understandable. Love averaged 1.6 air yards per throw in that game, and the Packers' receivers collectively produced only 12 yards after the catch over expectation despite producing 134 YAC outright. In that game, the Browns played 47% split safety coverage -- the second-highest rate of any game in Jim Schwartz's tenure as Cleveland's defensive coordinator.

play

1:17

Should managers be hesitant to start Jordan Love in fantasy?

Field Yates breaks down why Jordan Love isn't a lock to start in fantasy this week.

The Packers remain an excellent team that will play a major role in the NFC -- even with the offensive injuries. There's no doubting that. But there is a friction between philosophy and execution that must be resolved between now and the postseason. Green Bay doesn't have the players or precision necessary to reliably string together long scoring drives. The Packers can do it for stretches, of course -- 20 straight completions against the Steelers! But the issue is why the Packers haven't displayed the full-fledged dominance expected of them this season. This inconsistency is why.

The good news is that salvation can come from many places. If the offensive line finally gets a few healthy games together, perhaps the running game becomes more explosive. In the absence of Kraft, perhaps other YAC options such as Luke Musgrave, Golden or Williams will emerge. Reed, who has been great for YAC in previous seasons with the Packers, could return at some point this season from his collarbone and foot injuries. Love has another level to unlock in his decision-making against shell defenses; he can play faster and more aggressively. And maybe they can just avoid penalties, fumbles and missed kicks for a four-game postseason run, and that'll be that. They'll lift the Lombardi Trophy, and none will be the wiser.

The Packers are where other elite offenses with star quarterbacks have been before. Whether they claw their way out will be determined by the adjustments made over the next nine weeks. The NFC is still wide open. Buckle up.

Let's play trade deadline bingo

I made a bingo card for things that might happen on trade deadline day. Either all of us win, or all of us lose. Note that the board is live as of Tuesday, 6 a.m. ET. Check back later on Tuesday for my "winners and losers of the deadline" column, and I'll update on how we all did. Until that 4 p.m. ET deadline, though, let's have some fun.

There's nothing more disappointing than a dreary trade deadline. Let's make some deals. To build our board, I combined some of the early deadline reporting to build some squares (see: Patriots trade for a receiver), some of my internal suspicions and musings (see: Raiders are deadline dealers) and some of my favorite trade deadline traditions (see: wild overpays). If we get a mega trade of Trey Hendrickson to the 49ers, we can get 75% of the way to a bingo on one diagonal alone. If the Eagles send picks for Hendrickson, we can call them all-in and get almost the entire leftmost column.

We will not be counting the Eagles' deal for Jaelan Phillips for the third-round pick square, salary restructure square, or the ex-coordinator square, as it came in too early. We will, however, be counting the Dolphins sending Phillips as one of the two deals necessary for the "two or more Dolphins trades" square. These are the rules that I made up on the spot, and they are written in ink.

Second Take: Let's not make J.J. McCarthy the NFC Player of the Week this time, please

ESPN's "First Take" is known for, well, providing the first take on things -- the instant reactions. Second Take is not a place for instant reactions but rather where I'll let the dust settle before taking perhaps a bit of a contrarian view.

What a tremendous performance from the Vikings.

Let's start with the defense. The Lions have played 80 games (including playoffs) under coach Dan Campbell. By offensive success rate, Sunday's' 27-24 loss to the Vikings was the Lions' sixth-worst offensive performance during that tenure, with 45.5% of the Lions' drives (5 of 11) ending without Detroit picking up a first down. There has been only one game where the Lions have been worse in this category, which ironically came against the Vikings in Week 7 last season.

But the Vikings' defense exchanged stops for accompanying offensive explosives in that game, surrendering nine explosive passes and two big runs. On Sunday, Minnesota gave up only six explosive passes (two of which came on the Lions' final drive when they were down 10 late in the fourth quarter). They didn't give up an explosive run -- the first time the Lions were held without an explosive carry since their 2023 wild-card playoff win over the Rams.

This was the game that the Vikings built for last offseason, as their investment at defensive tackle paid off. Free agent additions Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, along with incumbents Jalen Redmond and Levi Drake Rodriguez, were highly disruptive against the Lions' tandem of new guards. The Vikings had 11 total tackles for loss -- five sacks and six more in the running game -- which is the most Campbell's offense has suffered.

The consistent penetration, along with the excellent blitz designs of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, had Jared Goff frazzled in the pocket. Goff's difficulties creating throws from moving platforms were on harsh display, as he completed only 40% of his pass attempts for 4.7 yards per throw when pressured while suffering the five sacks. When unpressured: 86.4% completion rate for 9.7 yards per attempt.

Minnesota sent tons of pressure down the center of the line, forcing RB Jahmyr Gibbs into pass protection -- but stopping power against charging linebackers is certainly not his game. As Nate Tice of Yahoo pointed out, Gibbs gave up more pressures than any running back in a game since 2018.

The Lions have serious questions on offense (they had equally bad games by success rate against the Browns and Buccaneers this season) -- but last season, they had the Vikings' number in explosive passing plays. This was a dramatic improvement for Flores' group and a clear product of an offseason intention to get better against this divisional foe.

Before we move on, a quick word for special teams: By NFL Next Gen Stats' numbers, the Vikings got plus-27% win probability added by special teams against Detroit. That's 20th among 268 team performances this season -- a truly elite effort. Returner Myles Price, who has been great this season, had a 61-yard kickoff return in the first quarter to set up the Vikings' first scoring drive. Minnesota also blocked a fourth-quarter field goal attempt that would have drawn the Lions within four points, and returned that ball to the Detroit 26 to set up a crucial final field goal that provided the eventual margin of victory. Big plays!

This brings us to the Vikings' offense, which was good enough to win Sunday. The running game was the driving force of the outing. The Vikings' rushing success rate of 54.2% was the 12th-best game an offense has had against Detroit in the Campbell era. By EPA per rush, 11th. By explosive rush rate, 14th.

Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell clearly wanted to slow down the pass rush of the recently extended Aidan Hutchinson, often having running backs run right at him or freezing him in place with backfield motion and option plays. Minnesota was far trickier in the running game with McCarthy at the helm than they've been in previous seasons with Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold or Carson Wentz. They tagged runs with RPOs and included McCarthy as a keep option on zone read looks.

pic.twitter.com/Bp5tJUbqir

Hopefully, we call the Vikings' enormous victory in Detroit exactly what it was: a team win. Every phase contributed positively, which insulated McCarthy from having too big an impact on the outcome. It was only his third career start. He was coming back from a major injury, playing in a hostile environment, and at a confidence low point, given his two-game sample size and some of the negative coverage about his injury.

But team wins become quarterback wins with shocking ease when McCarthy is the quarterback. The broadcast, as seemingly every Vikings broadcast does, recalled McCarthy's winning record as a high school and college quarterback. Heck, he's 2-1 as an NFL starter -- a winning record.

McCarthy's best plays came in high-leverage moments. His best throw was the third-and-5 dot to Jalen Nailor to seal the win. McCarthy makes the right read against man coverage, taking the wheel route to Nailor over the dig to Jefferson, who is running right into a robber safety. The ball is out on time and thrown accurately, with the correct pace so Nailor can track it.

pic.twitter.com/LCqAIQq86r

McCarthy had several accurate throws and is at his best just ripping high-velocity fastballs into the sideline. But as was the case in September, throws with touch challenged his ball placement, and poor pocket footwork sapped his consistency. McCarthy remains fearful of windows in the middle of the field, which led to a couple of his sacks and limited the sort of concepts O'Connell could call: 6% of McCarthy's attempts have been to the intermediate middle of the field this season, less than half of Sam Darnold's rate (13.4%) in 2024.

Though the middle of the field is not McCarthy's strength, he brings other tools to the table. His mobility was a positive against the Lions' blitz-happy approach, and his third-and-8 scramble touchdown was a good reminder of the added benefit he brings with his legs. But on the day, the Vikings' passing game -- and offense as a whole -- was again erratic under McCarthy.

Consider the split in offensive performance on called runs relative to dropbacks, and the offensive engine was clear.

Altogether, Minnesota's offensive success rate was 40.8%, in the same neighborhood as the win against the Bears (41.8%) and loss to the Falcons (38.0%). The Vikings averaged only 4.4 yards per offensive play, and five Lions defensive penalties for 41 yards and four first downs really helped Minnesota move the ball.

Whenever the numbers look bad for McCarthy, there's a protesting refrain: "He's clutch! He's poised! He just wins!" McCarthy looked calm and controlled on the first two drives, which were scripted plays -- once the offense got off script and the Lions hit him a few times, his composure started to wane. He was sacked five times, turned the wrong direction during a couple of run plays, dropped a snap and sprayed several throws. In the second half, the Vikings' two scoring drives started on the Lions ' 26- and 35-yard lines, respectively.

Judging McCarthy's year so far has been one of the season's great challenges. The prime-time win against the Bears and accompanying mythmaking felt like strenuous overreaching. While the Vikings were uber cautious rushing McCarthy back, the shadow benching conspiracy after the ankle injury felt similarly preposterous. Once again, this was McCarthy's third career start. Though early returns are highly worrisome, we're 10 starts from establishing a firm opinion on the young passer, and another 17 after that from writing that opinion in pen, not pencil.

This is a game to cast aside our quarterback obsession and see the forest for the trees. I ranked the Vikings' coaching staff the best in football this offseason, and this game is a tremendous example. Flores and O'Connell outcoached their counterparts on the Detroit sidelines in highly adverse circumstances. To make McCarthy the story of this game is to totally erase the spectacular efforts of many Vikings -- coaches and players. I simply won't have it.

From y'all

The best part of writing this column is hearing from all of you. Hit me on X (@BenjaminSolak) or by email ([email protected]) anytime -- but especially on Monday each week -- to ask a question and potentially get it answered here.

From Horse: As someone who was against starting Daniel Jones and has had to stand up and eat crow as DJ has been impressively not-awful to begin the year, how loud should I sound the alarm after he looked completely out of his element in Pittsburgh?

Not loudly. The Colts had six turnovers Sunday. Sometimes, you just have six turnovers and lose a football game. That's the annoying and wonderful thing about the sport. Anyone can implode at any time.

There are clear areas in which Jones might regress (and has started to regress; see below). But the collective quality play of the Colts' skill positions, as well as tremendous coaching from Shane Steichen, won't all evaporate at once. The Colts probably won't end the season as the greatest offense in NFL history -- their pace through eight games -- but they'll still be pretty good.

That defense, though? Help is needed.

play

1:09

Was the Colts' loss a bad game or a bad sign?

Domonique Foxworth, Rex Ryan and Adam Schefter debate if the Colts' level of concern after getting beat by the Steelers.

From John: What's the team you feel like has the best chance to improve on one side of the field with better health and more experience in the second half?

The Buccaneers' offense is definitely up there. Mike Evans isn't coming back, but Jalen McMillan, Bucky Irving and Emeka Egbuka all will. Right tackle Luke Goedeke, whom I call the most underrated player in football, was just designated to return from IR, as well. Tristan Wirfs got back in the starting lineup but hasn't looked like his dominant self -- hopefully, he'll round into form as the season progresses. Tampa's underlying offensive metrics are not good, but they've done well to survive the first half of the season at 6-2. I expect an offensive leap down the back nine.

Other good candidates: Ravens defense (already seeing that start to come to fruition). Panthers offense (with a little offensive line stability, some actual secondary pass-catching options in Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette, and a healthy Bryce Young ... we might see them in the NFC playoff picture). 49ers offense (duh).

From Collector: You can pick any player to be your WR #1 for the rest of the year. Your only goal is to win a Super Bowl this year. Contract doesn't matter for this exercise, and you're guaranteed that whoever you pick will remain healthy. How many receivers are you picking before JSN?

Oof. OOF. This is brutally hard. By rule, I am extremely suspicious of single-season production. I want a player to be elite for multiple years before I call them elite -- though you could argue Jaxon Smith-Njigba's elite play began late last season. And his play isn't just elite -- it's so uniquely spectacular that it almost breaks all the rules.

OK, OK. I will take Ja'Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Justin Jefferson over Smith-Njigba. They've been elite for longer. Smith-Njigba has been better than each of those players this season, but still, a larger sample matters -- and Nacua does stuff as a blocker that Smith-Njigba doesn't. Same with Chase after the catch.

I think...that's it? Not A.J. Brown, not Amon-Ra St. Brown, not Nico Collins, not Drake London -- though, oh my heavens, did you see London against the Patriots? Ridiculous player. Strongest hands in football.

CeeDee Lamb is close -- I think if he hadn't gotten hurt, he'd be shredding this season. Then again, he wouldn't have 4.58 yards per route run, which is what Smith-Ngjiba is at right now. It's the best eight-game start to a season for yards per route run in NFL history ... 2023 Tyreek Hill is second at 4.45 yards per route run, and the only player above 4.00 since routes run were charted in 2008.

Yeah, that's it. Just those three. I can't put him above Jefferson. I just can't.

(I really want to, though.)

play

2:31

Schefter to McAfee: Seahawks a team to watch ahead of trade deadline

Adam Schefter explains to Pat McAfee why the Seahawks are an intriguing team to watch ahead of the NFL trade deadline.

Next Ben Stats

NFL Next Gen Stats are unique and insightful nuggets of data that are gleaned from tracking chips and massive databases. Next Ben Stats are usually numbers I made up. Both are below.

44.1%: That was Patrick Mahomes' completion percentage against the Bills on Sunday, the worst mark of his career (142 games).

The story of this achievement was pressure. Mahomes went 3-of-16 on pressured dropbacks in this game for a paltry 18.8% completion rate. In the renewed spirit of a downfield passing attack, which the Chiefs spent all offseason promising and promoting, Mahomes averaged 17.9 air yards per attempt on pressured dropbacks -- the second-highest mark for a game in his career.

It's tough to fault Mahomes' approach too much -- there were open receivers downfield and blanketed receivers underneath. But one thing is glaring, and must be addressed before a potential Buffalo rematch in the postseason -- 18 pressured dropbacks, but zero scrambles.

plus-60: That's the Broncos' point differential in the fourth quarter this season. The next-closest teams are at plus-37 (Panthers, Jets).

Through the first nine games of a season, plus-60 is the fifth-best fourth-quarter point differential this century. The 2025 Broncos are behind the 2015 Texans, 2009 Saints, and weirdly enough, two more Broncos seasons: 2012 and 2016. That 2009 Saints team is of particular note, as Sean Payton was the coach there, as well. The Saints started the season 9-0 and finished 13-3 on the way to winning the Super Bowl.

I'm suspicious of the 2025 Broncos' ability to repeat that run, and it comes down to the other three quarters. The 2009 Saints were plus-60 in point differential across the first three quarters; the 2025 Broncos are minus-1. Though Payton is finding offensive solutions in the fourth quarter to alleviate early-game woes, this is one of those classic short-sample success stats that we expect to regress to the mean as time goes on.

minus-0.81: That's Daniel Jones' EPA per dropback when pressured over the past two weeks -- the second-worst mark among all quarterbacks. From Weeks 1-7, it was 0.15 -- the best.

Against the Steelers specifically, Jones averaged minus-1.03 EPA per dropback -- a disastrous day. He was pressured on only 32% of his dropbacks, but went 6-of-13 with 2 interceptions and 5 sacks. Left tackle Bernhard Raimann and right tackle Braden Smith struggled with the Steelers' collective speed at edge rusher. They gave up 10 quick pressures (a pressure in under 2.5 seconds), the most Jones had endured this season.

We know play under pressure is highly volatile. The worst plays, like sacks, always come from pressure; often the best plays, like big downfield completions, come because a blitz was picked up. Jones was unsustainably excellent against pressure to start the season, but he likely won't have minus-1 EPA per pressured dropback the rest of the way, either.

Something we expect to be sticky in the NFL is pressure-to-sack ratio -- the rate at which quarterbacks turn pressures into sacks. Some quarterbacks are low-sack players because they have such tremendous escapability (Josh Allen) or throw the football away readily (Bo Nix). Others are high-sack players because they hold the ball to create (Drake Maye) or struggle to identify pressure quickly enough (Justin Fields).

In his six seasons before this year, Jones had a sack-to-pressure rate of 23.27%, which was a little above league average. From Weeks 1-7 this season, Jones was at 8.57% -- a fraction of his previous career pace. Over the past two weeks? 30.8%. Right back up again.

The game against the Steelers does not erase Jones' excellent play to begin the season, but it serves as a reminder of what we've learned about quarterbacks like Goff, Sam Darnold, and Jalen Hurts in recent years. On supercharged offenses with quality running games, elite skill position teammates and excellent scheming, the weak point is often the quarterback -- even when that quarterback's stats look sterling. If and when the Colts' offense breaks this season, expect the breaking point to be Jones ... until he proves otherwise.

52%: That was the Bills' run rate in their win over the Chiefs. In the previous six games against the Chiefs, their run rate was 38%.

Running the ball to control the clock against Kansas City is far from a new idea. But the Bills have never been so committed to a quality, downhill running game authored by true handoffs, not Allen scrambles or keepers. Running back James Cook III had 114 yards on 27 carries -- the first 100-yard rusher against the Chiefs' defense since his former college teammate Zamir White did it in Week 16 of 2023.

But the story isn't Cook. It's this offensive line. Cook had 55 yards before contact -- the most of any back with at least 10 carries against the Chiefs since the 2020 season -- and was touched behind the line of scrimmage on only 18.5% of his carries. And it's not just the offensive line: fullback Reggie Gilliam played 17 snaps and was dominant at the point of attack. Tyrell Shavers, the Bills' best blocking receiver, played a season-high 31 snaps, too.

The Bills have the league MVP at quarterback, but their handoff game -- again, without needing to use Allen's legs -- is simply one of the five best in the NFL this season. Buffalo needs to continue leaning into a downhill, run-first approach on offense and unleash Allen only when opposing defenses have been forced to index to the run.

play

1:36

Stephen A.: The Bills aren't the best team in the AFC

Stephen A. Smith says he isn't taking too much from the Bills' win over the Chiefs in the regular season.

100%: How certain I was that Brandon Aubrey would hit that 68-yard field goal attempt Monday.

That was Aubrey's first miss from 60-plus yards this season (had hit from 61 and 64 previously). It was not just his first career miss from 60+ in AT&T Stadium -- it was his first miss from 50+ in AT&T Stadium. He was 18-of-18 before that kick. There is nobody in the world happier that Aubrey finally missed a distance kick than Jaguars PK Cam Little, who set the record with a 68-yarder at the end of the first half against the Raiders. The history books will still remember Little -- at least for another week.

Monday Night Mystery: Jerry Jones and the TBD Trade

Here's what we know.

At roughly 2 p.m. ET on Monday, Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones appeared on the "Stephen A. Smith Show" on Sirius XM Radio and announced that the Cowboys ... had made a trade? Were working on making a trade? Multiple trades?

Yeah. We don't know much.

"A lot of action going on right now in terms of trading," Jones said before the Cowboys played Monday night. "We certainly have made a trade, and we may make a couple more trades before that deadline. We've made one. We possibly could make two more, and I'm going to wait and let you read about that when we send the papers in tomorrow."

It's unclear if the "one" Jones is referring to is the Micah Parsons trade, which technically was before this year's trade deadline. Or another one that hasn't been processed yet. And if the one is yet to come, does the "two more" bring us up to three total? Just how active will the Cowboys be?

Jones' postgame comments were predictably unhelpful. When asked if he still had a trade ready for tomorrow, Jones responded, "We still can, yes." Presumably, there is an offer on the table that the Cowboys can still accept, and Jones plans to accept. When asked if the trade was contingent on the result Monday, Jones continued: "Again, again, understand what I've said: absolutely we do. We'll see how tomorrow goes. Today was all about tomorrow. You shouldn't do anything. You should wait and see what we do tomorrow."

I don't know what that means.

Let's go back to what we do know. The Cowboys are 3-5-1 after an embarrassing home loss to the now 3-5 Cardinals. Dallas' offense had only three points before the fourth quarter, in which the Cowboys trailed by 17 points and were benefiting from garbage-time defense. Jacoby Brissett, the Cardinals' backup quarterback, had his best passer rating (115.1) of the season and his fifth-best mark of the past four seasons.

I'll never say never with Jones, the man who traded Parsons because he was upset a handshake deal from months previous fell through. But it's hard to imagine trades that can fix this defense, which needs multiple players at linebacker and cornerback to have a viable pass defense, and could use (get this) another run-stuffing defensive lineman to boot. Nobody can turn over a roster like that midseason.

The offense had a quiet game against Arizona until the late touchdown, but that's still a playoff unit. This defense is prohibitive to 2025 contention, and the Cowboys would be brazenly short-sighted to make significant acquisitions at the deadline in the hopes of saving this season.

So, what is Jones up to this time? We'll find out together!