Experts' picks, best bets: Who should bettors back at UFC 317?

The UFC caps off its International Fight Week with UFC 317 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night (10 ET on ESPN+ PPV; prelims at 8 ET on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+; early prelims at 6:30 ET on ESPN+/Disney+).

The main event will feature former featherweight champion Ilia Topuria taking on former lightweight titleholder Charles Oliveira for the 155-pound belt recently vacated by Islam Makhachev. Topuria is ESPN's No. 2-ranked pound-for-pound fighter, while Oliveira is ESPN's second-ranked lightweight.

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja returns to the Octagon seeking his fourth consecutive men's flyweight title defense against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja, ranked No. 7 in ESPN's P4P rankings, has not lost since July 2020. Kara-France, No. 4 in ESPN's flyweight rankings, earned a title shot following an impressive first-round knockout win over Steve Erceg at UFC 305 this past August.

On Friday, the PFL hosts the last event of its 2025 semifinals, featuring the middleweight, light heavyweight and heavyweight divisions.

Fabian Edwards will square off with Josh Silveira in the main event. Also on the main card, former Bellator bantamweight champions Sergio Pettis and Raufeon Stots go head to head.

A UFC Hall of Famer, MMA coach, ESPN MMA analysts and commentators give their UFC title fight predictions. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on intriguing bets from both fight cards.

Lightweight championship

Everything I look at in this matchup tells me to pick Ilia. He's a better technical boxer. Against Josh Emmett in 2023, he showed he was defensively responsible, even though he had no problem standing in the pocket. Most people who avoid taking a big shot from Emmett do it by refusing to engage with him and backing away. Ilia is so technically sound, which is extremely impressive. And if he gets on top of Charles on the ground, I think he'll do serious damage. -- Anthony Smith

I think it's going to be pretty one-sided. I think Ilia will hurt him in the first round and have him hesitant the rest of the fight. Ilia will start picking Charles apart and put him away in the third round. -- Din Thomas

Betting analysis

Odds accurate as of June 26. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Topuria to win by TKO/KO; over 1.5 rounds. Topuria makes the jump up from featherweight to lightweight against Oliveira, hoping to capture his second championship. The oddsmakers seem to expect Topuria (-525) to win easily. That line is way too wide for me, considering Topuria only has one UFC fight at lightweight, and though he won, he was dropped in the first round by Jai Herbert in July 2021. This fight will be more competitive than the odds suggest, so if you take Topuria, the KO/TKO prop is the way to go. Another line that caught my eye is the over 1.5 rounds. Oliveira hasn't been knocked out since 2017 and will have the reach to keep distance between them if he chooses to. So if a finish happens, I see it playing out similar to the way Topuria finished Max Holloway in Round 3 of their UFC 308 featherweight title fight.

Men's flyweight championship

I see this one as pretty one-sided, too. Ultimately, Kai won't be able to stop the takedown and that's the difference in this fight. Once Pantoja has him on the mat, he'll take the back and choke him out before the third round starts. -- Din Thomas

Kara-France riding an impressive streak right now. Pantoja doesn't close distance well sometimes. He's a little clumsy doing it, and Kara-France has looked really clean in his striking. His evading and countering look much better, and his footwork looks a lot better. -- Anthony Smith

Betting analysis

Parker: Pantoja to win (-250). As good a striker and as much knockout power as Kara-France has shown, I still don't expect it to be enough to beat the champion. Pantoja can match the power of Kara-France and has the durability to survive any big shots that come his way. The biggest disparity overall is the ground game of Pantoja. Time and time again, Pantoja has been able to dictate fights by advancing with strikes to set up his world-class jiu-jitsu, and I expect him to grapple his way to another successful title defense against Kara-France.

Parker's best bets on the rest of the card

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Felipe Lima defeats Muhammad Naimov via submission in Round 3

Felipe Lima makes his UFC debut and defeats Muhammad Naimov with a rear-naked choke in Round 3.

Men's bantamweight: Felipe Lima vs Payton Talbott

Lima to win (-195). Talbott was dominated from start to finish by Raoni Barcelos in his last fight. He was the biggest betting favorite on the card, but his poor takedown defense was exposed, and now he returns against another highly touted prospect who is a stylistic nightmare for him. On the feet, Lima throws more volume than Talbott and has shown good durability thus far. As long as he can avoid Talbott's power, look for Lima to use his wrestling and Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills to get the win here.

Middleweight: Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues to win (-220). More than a year after his decision win over Joe Pyfer in February 2024, Hermansson returns against Rodrigues, the betting favorite, even though he is coming off a loss to Jared Cannonier in his first main event. I like Rodrigues in this matchup because he is the better striker and carries tremendous knockout power. Hermansson usually has the upper hand in grappling, but in this matchup, Rodrigues is the better jiu-jitsu practitioner. Look for Rodrigues to keep this fight standing and get back on the winning track.

Parker's best bets for the PFL semifinals

Middleweight: Fabian Edwards vs. Josh Silveira

Over 2.5 rounds. Edwards let the MMA world know that he is still amongst the best middleweights in the PFL with his knockout win over Impa Kasanganay in the first round. He now takes on PFL mainstay Silveira, who is as durable a fighter as it gets. This is an interesting fight because Edwards is a -550 favorite, but Silveira has the edge in wrestling and ground game if he can get the fight there. The bet here is for the fight to go over 2.5 rounds or -- for a better price -- the distance, because it is impossible to put Silveira away. Four of Silveira's past five fights have gone to decision, as have two of Edwards' last four. I expect a tough fight from bell to bell.

Middleweight: Dalton Rosta vs. Aaron Jeffery

Rosta to win (-140). Rosta looked flawless in his fight against Sadibou Sy in the first round, and now gets a rematch against the one fighter who has beaten him in his professional career. Jeffery is a tough fighter, but his last fight against Murad Ramazanov showed very little evolution to his game. If he fights the same way against Rosta, he's in for a long night. If Rosta can stay off the fence and off his back, he will win.

Light heavyweight: Rafael Xavier vs Karl Albrektsson

Xavier to win (-170). Albrektsson is coming off a brutal TKO loss only six weeks ago, his second TKO loss in a row. He takes on Xavier next, who has a 69% KO/TKO rate and narrowly lost to Simeon Powell in his last fight. Unless Albrektsson takes down Xavier and holds him there, I expect Xavier to have a showcase moment.