Facts vs. Feelings: J.J. McCarthy, Kimani Vidal and other tough lineup decisions

There is a sweet little Finch that keeps flying into one of my kitchen windows. It's a raised casement that sits right above my sink, where I've attached a drying rack, used to stack Tupperware lids and cutting boards. There's nothing remotely alluring or even welcoming about my side of this window. No "open concept" to investigate or marble topped island to perch upon. And I'm certainly not giving Snow White vibes while washing dishes or rinsing produce.

And yet this charming creature seems intent on flying through the glass. It's incessant. Day after day, hour after hour, she flies from one of the citrus trees in my yard right into the pane. She swoops delicately, though, not hard, like she's attacking, but gently, as if she wants to explore what's on the other side. I'm not annoyed by the constant flapping and tapping. Rather, I'm worried about this tiny bird hurting herself.

I have rearranged the various and sundry items that might entice her flight, making sure to remove any additionally reflective surfaces. I've gone outside to shoo her away. I've sprayed the exterior with water so as to add depth to her perception. The internet suggests smearing the outside of the window with a bar of soap, which is supposed to create a visual barrier for the bird. That's next on the list of to-dos, but requires dragging a ladder out of my garage, so maybe tomorrow.

In any case, I want her to stop. For her own good. Because there is a whole world out there for her to discover. My kitchen is pretty boring and, honestly, no place for a House Finch (my extensive internet research has helped me identify the species and sex, in case you were wondering). This teeny critter's behavior, however, isn't so different than what we big and evolved humans do on a regular basis.

We're all guilty of stubbornly attempting to finish the task at hand. "See it through," if you will. Even when we know, deep down inside, that a course correction would provide eventual relief, benefiting ourselves and, perhaps, all parties involved. Yet, making the decision to pivot can be nerve-racking. Whether it's fear of the unknown or not wanting to feel like we're quitting, opting for change requires a leap of faith.

Ironically, we fully embrace the "upside of the unknown" during the preseason. Yet, once those rosters are locked -- and especially as we creep closer to the playoffs -- it becomes more difficult to alter our investments. The time and energy contributed compounds as the weeks roll by. We remember the top of the season when Quentin Johnston was remarkably reliable or when Travis Etienne Jr. was regularly posting double-digit fantasy point totals. Similarly, we're anxious to let go of consistent producers like Christian McCaffrey and Drake Maye, both of whom have ill-timed byes in Week 14.

Ours is a week-to-week endeavor that demands constant balance. Rash decisions could blow the whole thing up while making no decisions at all could render our squads useless and the rest of the season miserable. Ultimately, we have to get real about our personal tolerances. Not every player will return from injury in Brock Bowers-like fashion. Some could fizzle à la Kenneth Walker III. Others might surprise in a wonderfully Rico Dowdle way. The only sure thing is our resolve ... and the fact that while some windows never open, all eventually close. Time to fly.

Facts to consider and feelings to follow for Week 10

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings: McCarthy showed no signs of trepidation in returning from a five-game absence to pull off an upset at Detroit in Week 9. While his passing stats didn't exactly sing, the sophomore signal caller logged three scores, including a rushing TD (18.9 FPTs, QB14). McCarthy's accuracy is still a work in progress and he certainly missed a few throws, but he flashed an exciting amount of chemistry with both Justin Jefferson (who briefly exited the contest with cramps) and Jordan Addison. In just his third pro start, the Michigan product demonstrated tantalizing upside in a fantasy-friendly scheme, placing him firmly on the QB streaming radar.

McCarthy has yet to throw for 160 yards. However, he has registered three total scores in two of three outings (with two of those TDs coming via the ground). He figures to flirt with 200 passing yards versus Baltimore in Week 10. The Ravens have given up the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, allowing five of the eight they've faced to throw for at least 260 yards. Baltimore's defense has been on the up as of late, admittedly, but remains a middling unit, especially when considering the team's recent competition (Chicago and Miami in Weeks 8 and 9, respectively). In what's projected to be a fairly high-scoring affair (the total is 48.5 at ESPN BET) while surrounded by high-end talent, McCarthy presents with QB15 upside heading into Sunday's action.

Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: Warren has put in the work this season, logging 13 or more fantasy points in five of seven outings. He'll likely never boast big-volume numbers with Arthur Smith calling the plays, but he is a major cog in the Steelers' clunky wheel. Managing a snap share of 57% (as compared to Kenneth Gainwell's 39%), Warren is very much the team's RB1. Interestingly, it was Warren who received all three of the RB carries inside the 5-yard line last Sunday. Additionally, the 27-year-old has remained fantastically active as a pass-catcher, collecting at least two balls in each of his seven outings (21 total receptions, RB14).

Warren once again offers virtual investors solid RB2 value heading into Week 10. The Chargers have allowed the sixth-most yards per carry (4.9). Even better, Los Angeles has gifted opposing running backs with seven ground scores over the past five contests. While game flow might not work in Warren's favor on Sunday (+3.5), it's worth noting that the Bolts have given up seventh-most catches to RBs (19) over the past four weeks. Warren is worthy of managers' respect this weekend and, given his rest-of-season schedule (sixth best), throughout the remainder of the year.

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Is Kimani Vidal too inconsistent to trust in Week 10?

Daniel Dopp, Stephania Bell and Field Yates discuss the level of fantasy panic for Kimani Vidal heading into Week 10.

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers: Speaking of the Chargers, the squad's backfield continues to exist as a place of much travail for fantasy heads. Hopes were high that Vidal would act as a balm to L.A.'s RB woes when he posted two triple-digit rushing efforts after taking over for Omarion Hampton in Week 6. Instead, it's been a topsy-turvy ride for the Troy University product ... and that doesn't figure to change.

Vidal struggled to get anything going at Nashville last Sunday, eventually ceding touches to Jarrett Patterson in the second half. The second-year back has averaged fewer than 3.0 YPC in two of his past three efforts. With lineman Joe Alt suffering a season-ending ankle injury, Vidal's efficiency isn't likely to rebound. The Chargers are 4-0 in contests in which Alt is on the field for four full quarters and just 2-3 when the starting OT misses time.

Further working against Vidal is the matchup versus Pittsburgh. The Steelers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to backs, holding Jonathan Taylor to just 45 rushing yards on 14 attempts (3.2 YPC) in Week 9. Given all of the obstacles (and not discounting Patterson's potential involvement), Vidal enters the week as more of an RB3 than a sure-fire RB2 for fantasy purposes.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Indianapolis Colts: Drafted outside of the top 40 at the wide receiver position, expectations were decidedly low for Pittman heading into his sixth pro campaign. However, the revelatory play of Indiana Jones has breathed new life into Pittman's stock. The former Trojan is not only managing the highest catch rate of his career (76%, up from 62% in 2024), but he's also emerged as an effective end zone weapon. In fact, his six TDs (at the halfway point of the season) are tied with his career high from 2021 (when Carson Wentz was the team's starter under center). Those factors have resulted in a weekly average over 16.3 fantasy points per game, making him fantasy's WR6 overall. Talk about a midseason surprise!

Coming off a season-high number of grabs (9) and yards (115), Pittman is beginning to gain recognition. Admittedly, the wideout's volume was boosted last week by the Colts' game script, which forced Jones to air it out, lobbing the ball a season-high 50 times. Still, the schedule is set to stiffen for Indianapolis down the stretch, which should lead to more negative game scripts and subsequent targets for Pittman. If, however, that's too theatrical for investors, then Pittman makes for a solid sell-high candidate. Either way, he's worthy of high-end WR2 consideration heading into the season's double-digit weeks.

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What to make of Rome Odunze's fantasy goose egg

Field Yates and Daniel Dopp break down Rome Odunze’s zero-point fantasy performance.

Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears: Where, oh where, has our alpha gone? Unbelievably, Odunze hasn't visited the end zone since Week 4. This, after collecting five TDs in the season's first four games. And he hasn't made up for it in yardage, registering 32 or fewer yards in three of his past four contests. ESPN's Matt Bowen believes Odunze's struggles can largely be attributed to Caleb Williams' accuracy issues. Per Bowen, "In order for Ben Johnson's offense to really take off, Williams needs to develop a stronger sense of timing and more precise ball location." That was certainly evident in the duo's missed end zone connection at Cincinnati last Sunday. (And so Chicago's QB issues persist.)

As we always say, nothing is permanent. Odunze figures to bounce back from his Week 9 bagel this coming weekend. By how much, however, remains the question. The Giants have allowed the second-most catches (89) and the third-most yards to outside receivers (1,086). Odunze is a capable talent. And in a game with a total of 48.5 at ESPN BET, he should draw at least five or six looks. Still, the volatility within the situation is unabashedly obvious, making Odunze a risky WR2 for fantasy purposes in Week 10. Managers intent on exploiting the favorable matchup should insure their lineups with high-floor options to balance out any potential inefficiencies.

Romeo Doubs, WR, Green Bay Packers: He may not be in possession of Christian Watson's big-play appeal, Matthew Golden's versatility or Tucker Kraft's after-the-catch ability, but Doubs has emerged as Jordan Love's most relied upon pass-catcher. The 25-year-old leads the team in routes run (26.6 per game), targets drawn (52) and catches collected (34). Interestingly, he also leads the team in end zone opportunities, pulling six, whereas the rest of the corps has drawn a total of seven. Credited with at least eight looks in four of his past five efforts, Doubs has averaged 15.8 fantasy points per contest (WR13) since Week 4.

There was understandable concern that Watson's return might negatively affect Doubs' volume. Yet, Doubs led the team in snaps (58 to Watson's 39) and looks (10). An unexpected game script and injuries certainly increased the Nevada product's involvement, but it's telling that when bodies were needed, it was Doubs who was looked to. With Kraft (ACL) out for the remainder of the year and Golden nursing a shoulder issue, Doubs figures to remain prominently in the mix. He projects as a low-end WR2/flex option heading into a tilt versus a Philadelphia defense that has given up more than 30 fantasy points to WR corps in five of its past six contests. Doubs is ranked as the ESPN consensus WR25 heading into Monday night's action.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans: Schultz didn't hit when I projected he would two weeks ago. However, I'm going back to the well, especially if C.J. Stroud sits in Week 10. Schultz has managed double-digit fantasy totals in three of his past four games. And he's done that despite not scoring a touchdown in any of those outings (or at all thus far in 2025). Volume has buoyed the 29-year-old's stock, as he's drawn 21 looks over his past three efforts. He registered a hearty eight targets (with six coming while Davis Mills was under center) in Week 9.

That bodes well for Schultz's volume heading into an exploitable matchup versus Jacksonville. The Jaguars have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends. Obviously, Brock Bowers' Week 9 torching of the Jags defense inflated those numbers. Yet, it's important to note that Jacksonville allowed an average of 79 yards per game and three total TDs to the position in the four games prior to the club's Week 8 bye. As such, Schultz remains on the streaming radar, capable of TE12-14 fantasy numbers this weekend.

Bonus: Tyler Higbee, TE, Los Angeles Rams: It's going to be darn near impossible to improve on last week's Colston Loveland pick, but I feel compelled to serve up a potential dart throw. Higbee has recorded four looks in four straight games. That's by no means robust volume, but when noting that his six red zone looks rank 15th at the position, Higbee's usage becomes intriguing for fantasy. Even more interesting is the fact that he's drawn just one fewer red zone look (6) than Puka Nacua (7). Moreover, Higbee has registered two end zone looks to Puka's one. Speaking of Nacua, were the star receiver to be hampered by his current rib ailment, Higbee's role would likely grow. In a rematch against the 49ers defense (which gave up a score to Theo Johnson last Sunday), the veteran tight end might just get lucky on Sunday. Consider Higbee a Hail Mary stream in Week 10. He's available in 98% of ESPN Fantasy Leagues.