NFL predictions, fantasy sleepers, trends for Week 6: Keep an eye on Sam Darnold?

Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season is here, and our NFL analysts have you covered on last-minute prep. Catch up on everything before Sunday's action.

Here's what we have: First, analytics writer Seth Walder breaks down three stat trends that could be pivotal this weekend. Then fantasy football writer Eric Moody runs through five players who are rostered in under 50% of ESPN fantasy football leagues as of Saturday and could be started in a jam. That's followed by NFL analyst Matt Bowen predicting three potentially big surprises and sports betting analyst Pamela Maldonado giving her favorite bet for Week 6.

Should we expect another big outing for Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold and receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba? Do the Chiefs stand a chance against the Lions' play-action offense? Could Packers cornerback Xavier McKinney intercept Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco for the second time this season? And is there betting value in the Lions-Chiefs matchup on Sunday night? Let's dive in.

Jump to:
Stat trends | Fantasy sleepers
Potential surprises | Best bet

Walder: Three key stat trends that could determine Week 6 winners

Can the Chiefs stop the Lions' play-action offense?

Ben Johnson might have left to the Bears this offseason, but a staple of his offense remains firmly entrenched in Detroit: the play-action. The Lions are running play-action at a 32.1% clip this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. And that's potentially bad news for the Chiefs, who are allowing 0.48 expected points added per play (not a typo) to play-action passes -- the most of any team in the league.

When I see a stat like that, my first reaction is there must be one massive play dragging that average up. In this case, not really. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence's 44-yard pass to Travis Hunter (worth 2.3 EPA) this past Monday was the No. 1 play. The Chiefs are allowing a 65.8% success rate on play-action plays, second-highest in the league. It should be an easy button for the Lions to press several times on Sunday.

Can the Bengals protect quarterback Joe Flacco from Packers edge rusher Micah Parsons?

The good news for Flacco: He has a starting job again with Cincinnati. The bad news: He immediately has to deal with Parsons, and he hardly has great protection in front of him.

The Bengals rank last in the NFL with a 47.5% pass block win rate this season. Parsons lines up on both sides but most often opposite the left tackle. In this case, that means he'll face Orlando Brown Jr., who has an 80.4% pass block win rate that ranks 56th out of 64 qualifying tackles. The only saving grace here is that Flacco -- even at 40 years old -- is above average in sack avoidance, with a 5.2% sack rate since 2021. That doesn't mean he won't have Parsons barreling down on him as he releases the ball, though.

How are the Jets going to move the ball against the Broncos?

I don't envy Jets offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand this week. The Jets very much want to run the ball, but they haven't been able to do so effectively, ranking 27th in EPA per designed carry (minus-0.11). One area where they have shined, though, is yards before contact per run (league high at 3.7). Unfortunately for New York, the Broncos are the antithesis to that, allowing just 1.9 yards before contact per run.

And if the Jets are forced into must-pass situations, it could get ugly. The Broncos rank eighth in pass rush win rate (43.0%) and fourth in EPA allowed per dropback with cornerback Pat Surtain II anchoring the defense. To make matters worse, the Jets have performed worse against man coverage than zone this season, and no team plays more man than the Broncos at 64.8%. It could be a long flight home from London for the Jets.

Moody: Five fantasy sleepers you need to pick up -- and can start this week

Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans (30.1% rostered)

Ayomanor was mentioned here last week, and he deserves another nod. While Calvin Ridley posted the bigger fantasy numbers in Week 5 against the Cardinals, Ayomanor ranks second on the Titans with 29 targets and has scored both of the team's receiving touchdowns this season. This week, both Ayomanor and Ridley have a chance to shine against a Raiders defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

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Why Mike Clay is upgrading Titans and Chiefs WRs in Week 6

Mike Clay, Daniel Dopp, and Field Yates discuss why the receivers on the Titans and Chiefs have prime matchups in Week 6.

Kimani Vidal, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (22.7% rostered)

Chargers RB Hassan Haskins has gotten most of the attention this week after Omarion Hampton was added to the IR with an ankle injury. But don't overlook Vidal, who should carve out a role in Greg Roman's offense. Haskins is expected to handle early-down work, while Vidal serves as the change-of-pace back and receiving option. He also draws a favorable matchup against a Dolphins defense that has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.

Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks (20.6% rostered)

Darnold was exceptional last week against the Buccaneers, finishing with a season-high 27.6 fantasy points. The Jaguars' defense has been inconsistent all season and is coming off a short week after beating the Chiefs on Monday. And while Jacksonville leads the league with 10 interceptions, it has also allowed the fifth-most passing yards per game this season.

Jake Tonges, TE, San Francisco 49ers (15.4% rostered)

Tonges is a strong option for managers hurting at tight end. He has stepped up for the 49ers with George Kittle on IR (hamstring), piling up 16 targets and 31.9 fantasy points over the past two weeks. Now, he faces a Buccaneers defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season. In a matchup that should see a lot of points, Tonges should stay busy.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Cleveland Browns (2.4% rostered)

If you're in a bind in a superflex league, don't overlook Gabriel. He impressed in his Week 5 debut, scoring 16.1 fantasy points against a tough Vikings defense. In Week 6, Gabriel could thrive with more of a vertical passing game after focusing on short and intermediate throws, especially against a Steelers defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Bowen: Don't be surprised if ...

Rams QB Matthew Stafford throws three touchdown passes against the Ravens

Stafford is playing really good football right now, with multiple touchdown passes in four games and three in each of the past two. Against the banged-up Baltimore defense, a unit that has allowed a league-high 13 touchdown passes this season, Stafford could fill up the box score. Get him in your fantasy lineup, too.

Packers CB Xavier McKinney intercepts Bengals QB Joe Flacco

With his aggressive throwing mentality and rapidly declining mobility, Flacco will force passes into tight windows and give the Packers opportunities to find the ball. That opens the door for McKinney to make a play using his range over the top this Sunday. Flacco has thrown six picks this season, including one to McKinney in the Browns' Week 3 win over the Packers.

Seahawks WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba tops 100 receiving yards against the Jaguars

Smith-Njigba has already posted over 100 receiving yards in three games this season. Yes, the Jaguars have a very opportunistic defense with a staggering 14 takeaways, but they are allowing 250.4 passing yards per game (27th in the NFL).

Smith-Njigba is one of the best I've watched on tape this season. It's the route running, the competitive play style after the catch and his overall fit in Klint Kubiak's offense that make him stand out. He will get open (again) this Sunday in Jacksonville.

Maldonado: My favorite bet for Week 6

UNDER 52.5 points in Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs

Everyone wants the "Patrick Mahomes vs. Jared Goff fireworks game," but that's not who these teams are right now. Detroit is 30th in dropback rate and will likely run the ball 25 or more times to play keep away. Kansas City still throws plenty but cashes in at an average clip (63.2% red zone conversion rate, tied for 16th), turning volume into field goals instead of touchdowns.

Neither team plays with real pace, as Mahomes' offense has become scramble-heavy and Goff's unit can be more methodical. On the other side of the ball, both defenses are built to bend, not break. If this lands near 48 points, that's about the ceiling. This O/U has more to do with narrative rather than data correction.