Impending free agents, aging stars and an injured ace: How much longer can the Phillies keep contending?

A baseball team's season doesn't really come down to one play, or two plays, but if you're a loyal fan of the Philadelphia Phillies, the final play of the National League Division Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers will live in your nightmares for a long time.

Orion Kerkering's throwing error, leading to the Phillies' elimination in Game 4 of the NLDS, is another addition to the list of heartbreaking postseason defeats. It's a long list, of course, because that's what playoff baseball does. But there were two other short throws from Game 2 that might have also impacted the outcome of the series: (1) Trea Turner's throw that was wide right to catcher J.T. Realmuto, allowing Teoscar Hernandez to beat the tag and slide in safely and leading to a four-run rally for the Dodgers, and (2) Max Muncy firing a perfect throw to Mookie Betts on a bunt attempt in the ninth inning that nailed Nick Castellanos at third base as the Dodgers held on for a 4-3 victory.

It's easy to think about the what-ifs -- what if either throw went a few inches the other way? Or if Kerkering threw to first base instead of home? But it's not as simple as a few throws, although those plays highlight the small margin of error in the playoffs.

The Phillies' season is also over because the big names didn't hit. During this four-year run of what you might call the Bryce Harper/Kyle Schwarber era, they reached the World Series -- somewhat surprisingly -- in 2022 but haven't made it back despite having some of the top front-line talent in the sport. In fact, the Phillies are 3-10 in their past 13 postseason games and 2-8 in their past 10.

In those 10 games, they've hit .195 as a team. Harper hit .206 with one home run and three RBIs. Schwarber hit .162 with three home runs and four RBIs, two of those home runs and three of the RBIs coming in Game 3 of this series. The others around them didn't fare any better in those 10 games, with Turner, Bryson Stott and Brandon Marsh each hitting under .200.

As the Phillies soak up a disappointing end to 2025, you have to wonder if this might be the end of this era of Phillies baseball. Schwarber, Realmuto and Ranger Suarez are free agents this offseason. Zack Wheeler will attempt a comeback following thoracic outlet syndrome surgery -- though his timeline is uncertain. Aaron Nola is coming off a 6.01 ERA. And to top it all off, their four most valuable position players this season were all 32 or older.

The Phillies have had a remarkably stable roster of core players during this four-year run, and though they might look very different in 2026, one thing is for certain: Harper is not going anywhere. Signed through 2031, he has connected with the fans of Philadelphia like few athletes do in their adopted cities. He also knows their pain.

"I know fans are upset. I know the city's upset. Obviously, it's warranted. We're upset in here as well," Harper said after Game 4. "Our daily life is Phillies baseball. This is our family in here. This is what we do. We want to win not just for ourselves, but for everybody that watches us play. ... I want to hold the trophy and that's the goal every single time you get into spring training."

While most people in baseball don't believe the Phillies will let Schwarber go, not coming off his 56-homer campaign, the reality of the situation is clear: This is an aging roster with a high payroll. They have a committed owner in John Middleton, who has run top-five payrolls, and a future Hall of Fame executive in Dave Dombrowski, who knows how to build teams loaded with star players, but throwing more money at older players feels risky, even for a team coming off a 96-win season and trying to win the World Series.

The organization is at a critical juncture, one that eerily resembles another Phillies era: the 2007-2011 teams that won five consecutive NL East titles and the World Series in 2008. If anything, that group was even more talented than this one -- and the best of those teams was the 2011 squad that won 102 games, only to lose in the NLDS. But look what happened to those Phillies as the front office tried to keep winning with the same team:

• In 2012, they finished 81-81.

• In 2013, they finished 73-89.

• In 2014, they finished 73-89 and in last place in the division.

• In 2015, they hit rock bottom and finished an MLB-worst 63-99.

The similarities between the Phillies of the past four years and those 2007-2011 teams are more than a little eerie:

1. That 2011 NLDS ended with a 1-0 loss to the St. Louis Cardinals and on an atypical final play, when Ryan Howard grounded out and blew out his Achilles.

2. The ace of the 2011 staff was Roy Halladay, who won 19 games and posted 8.8 WAR. He was never the same again, suffering a shoulder injury the next season and winning just 15 more games in the majors. Wheeler, who had posted 5.0 WAR before this season ended when a blood clot was discovered near his right shoulder in August, will have to overcome a major injury at age 35 -- the same age as Halladay in 2012.

3. The average weighted age (based on playing time) of the 2011 Phillies position players was 31.5, the oldest in the NL. The average age of the 2025 Phillies position players was 30.3, second oldest in the NL.

4. The 2011 Phillies had locked themselves into some hefty long-term contracts for older players. Howard had signed a five-year, $125 million extension in 2010 that didn't begin until the 2012 season and was worth minus-5.0 WAR over those five seasons. Cliff Lee had signed a $120 million extension running through 2015, but he got hurt and won just four games in 2014, not even pitching in 2015. They banked on Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins to remain stars as they entered their age-33 seasons in 2012, but that didn't happen.

The 2025 Phillies have similar issues with Wheeler making $42 million the next two seasons, Nola signed all the way through 2030, and are banking on Harper and Turner remaining productive as they enter their age-33 seasons in 2026.

It's also hard to imagine the Phillies suddenly rebuilding. That's not in the nature of Middleton or Dombrowski. Even with the uncertainty with Wheeler, they have another ace in Cristopher Sanchez, plus Jesus Luzardo for one more season. We might finally see top prospect Andrew Painter enter the rotation in 2026. Taijuan Walker is still around for another year, so even if they don't re-sign Sanchez, the rotation could be solid, although a lot of that depends on Nola bouncing back. Closer Jhoan Duran is under team control for two more seasons, so Philadelphia at least finally has some stability in the ninth inning. The other key relievers will be back, including Jose Alvarado, if his $9 million club option is exercised (not a sure thing given his PED suspension made him ineligible for the postseason).

On the position player side, Castellanos ($20 million) and Walker ($18 million) come off the books after 2026, so that's money that can go to re-signing Schwarber. They also have a pair of highly touted prospects in shortstop/third baseman Aidan Miller and outfielder Justin Crawford, who should both be ready at some point in 2026, so that's an opportunity to weave in some younger players.

There's also the question of who will be managing this group for the long run. While Rob Thomson is under contract through the 2026 season, there are always rumblings that it might be time for a change after a string of painful playoff exits.

Despite that potential uncertainty, Thomson has no doubt about what the Phillies will have planned for 2026: "John [Middleton] is going to spend money. He wants to win. He wants a world champion. There's good years ahead, no doubt."

That may very well be the case. It's easy to envision the Phillies right back in this position next October, hoping Harper and Schwarber get hot at the right time, hoping the right throws are made this time, hoping the whims of postseason baseball go their way. History, however, also suggests that's hardly a sure thing.