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ESPN Analytics' live NFL playoff chances -- which combine current in-game win probabilities with our Football Power Index (FPI) season projections -- provide each team's postseason likelihood at any given moment throughout the entire Week 17 and Week 18 slates. The projected final standings will update regularly, and we're also tracking a few tight postseason races and the projected 2026 draft order for non-playoff teams. See how things stack up in both conferences throughout every game for the rest of the regular season.
NFC playoff picture
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AFC playoff picture
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With two weeks left in the season, there are still four playoff spots (two in the AFC, two in the NFC) and seven division titles there for the taking. The Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars, Bills, Chargers, Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Bears and 49ers have secured playoff berths. The No. 1 seed hasn't been clinched in either conference.
We're tracking the closest, most interesting races live. We have you covered through all the swings, big plays and surprises.
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
Earning the 1-seed in the AFC is surely on the Broncos' holiday wish list this year, and they have a chance to take a big step toward achieving that goal if they can beat the Chiefs on Thursday (8:15 p.m. ET). The Broncos would then be heavy favorites to land the first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
And they could even clinch this weekend if the Patriots, Jaguars, Bills and Chargers all lose. (Denver can also secure the AFC West title in Week 17 if it wins against Kansas City and the Chargers lose to Houston.)
While 14 teams will ultimately make the playoffs, 18 others start their offseasons at the conclusion of Week 18. Those franchises will soon be making personnel decisions, evaluating their coaching staffs, working the trade market and navigating the free agent pool. But the 2026 NFL draft also lies ahead (April 23 in Pittsburgh). Four first-round picks have been traded, which means 28 teams will have the chance to land at least one top prospect on Day 1. (The Falcons' pick belongs to the Rams, the Jaguars' pick belongs to the Browns, the Colts' pick belongs to the Jets and the Packers' pick belongs to the Cowboys.)
Who is set up to land Indiana's Fernando Mendoza, Ohio State's Arvell Reese or Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love? Here is how the draft order projects at this moment for the league's bottom 18 teams, along with their chances to pick at No. 1 or in the top five.
Projected 2026 NFL draft order
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Methodology
Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics' live win probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index (FPI) projections. Live in-game win probabilities weigh multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field position, down-and-distance, team opponent strength and game site. These live probabilities are used by the FPI's projections, which simulate the season based on each team's strength, schedule and tiebreaker rules. The result is a live representation of a team's various playoff, division and seeding chances, along with an updated projection of the final standings. Those simulations also project the top 18 picks in the 2026 draft.
Produced by ESPN Creative Studio: Nick Devlin, Jarret Gabel, Luke Knox, Rami Moghadam, Munehito Sawada and Garrett Siegel.
Illustrations by MASA. ESPN Analytics: Henry Gargiulo, Matt Morris and Lauren Poe.
