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Following the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, selection committee chair Mack Rhoades wanted to make sure reporters understood the most integral part of the ranking process.
"We've watched the games," he said on the weekly teleconference. "Let me repeat that; we watch the games."
That won't make it easier to decide who should be No. 2 on Tuesday night: Indiana, which escaped a 3-6 Penn State team, or Texas A&M, which soundly beat a CFP top 25 team in Mizzou. A deeper dive into the statistics and résumés of both undefeated teams -- plus the context of why the group ranked them No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, last week -- will factor into their discussions. It might be a bigger debate than how far No. 7 BYU should fall this week after a 29-7 loss to No. 8 Texas Tech.
Here's a prediction of what the selection committee will do Tuesday night when it reveals its second of six rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN).
Projecting the top 12
1. Ohio State Buckeyes (9-0)
Why they could be here: Ohio State earned its fourth Big Ten road win of the season Saturday, albeit against a 2-8 Purdue team that hasn't won since Sept. 6 against Southern Illinois. The Buckeyes entered Saturday ranked No. 33 in strength of schedule, according to ESPN Analytics, but No. 1 in Game Control and No. 3 in Strength of Record. "So it was certainly close [between Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M], but when we looked at film, and we're blessed to have committee members and coaches that do a lot of film work, we just felt like Ohio State had a slight edge when we think about offensive line play and then a slight edge defensively," Rhoades said after the first ranking release Tuesday. "That was really the outcome. Ohio State has some, I'm going to call them explosive players, that probably stood out as well."
Why they could be lower: It would be difficult for the committee to justify dropping the Buckeyes below Indiana after the Hoosiers were fortunate to escape Penn State with a win Saturday, but undefeated Texas A&M continues to make a case for the top spot. The Aggies, who entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, earned another CFP top 25 win at Mizzou on Saturday.
Need to know: Ohio State entered Week 11 with the best chance in the country to reach the playoff (99.2%), the best chance to earn the No. 1 seed (41.1%), and the best chance to win it all (27%).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at Michigan. It's the only CFP top 25 team left on Ohio State's regular-season schedule. The Buckeyes are trying to avoid a fifth straight loss to their rivals.
2. Indiana Hoosiers (10-0)
Why they could be here: The road win against 3-6 Penn State isn't going to help the Hoosiers' résumé much, but they narrowly avoided putting their first-round bye in jeopardy. Indiana should remain safely in the top four thanks to a double-digit road win against No. 9 Oregon and another CFP top 25 win at Iowa. The Hoosiers were able to beat two teams that were in a nailbiter on Saturday before Oregon won on a game-winning field goal at Iowa. Penn State and Iowa are the only opponents Indiana hasn't defeated by double digits. The historic 63-10 win against 6-3 Illinois is another respectable résumé booster, even though it's not against a CFP top 25 opponent.
Why they could be lower: Texas A&M continues to make a push to move up after its 38-17 win at Mizzou on Saturday. The Aggies entered Week 11 ranked higher than Indiana in ESPN's strength of schedule and strength of record metrics.
Need to know: Both of Indiana's remaining opponents -- Wisconsin and Purdue -- have six losses. The Hoosiers entered Week 11 with the best chance in the Big Ten to reach the conference championship game.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Purdue. It's on a Friday night against an in-state rival -- and Indiana still has at least a 97% chance to win, according to ESPN Analytics.
3. Texas A&M Aggies (9-0)
Why they could be here: With Saturday's win at Mizzou, the Aggies have now won three straight SEC road games to go along with the Sept. 13 win at Notre Dame. The committee will discuss, though, that Missouri was without injured starting quarterback Beau Pribula, and the Aggies easily handled freshman quarterback Matt Zollers, who was making his first start. Texas A&M entered Week 11 ranked No. 18 in defensive efficiency, behind both Ohio State (No. 3) and Indiana (No. 2), and that played a role in the committee's decision last week. "What we saw in A&M is a really, really good football team," Rhoades said Tuesday. "They went into Death Valley, I thought dominated a good LSU team. You have a dynamic playmaker at quarterback, Marcel Reed. He can beat you with his arm. He can beat you with his feet. Impressive win, certainly going on the road, South Bend. I think you're talking about really small margins when you think about the difference between Ohio State, Indiana and A&M, and then I think statistically when we looked at A&M defensively, they're just lower than both Ohio State and Indiana. We had to make a hard decision, and you're trying to find separators, and that was a separator for us."
Why they could be higher: While Indiana was fortunate to escape 3-6 Penn State with a win, Texas A&M went on the road and beat the committee's No. 22 team soundly, scoring 24 points in the second half against Mizzou.
Need to know: Texas A&M entered Saturday with a 56.7% chance to earn a first-round bye but had less than a 50% chance to beat Texas in the regular-season finale.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Texas. It's the only ranked opponent remaining on the Aggies' schedule, and their last road game.
4. Alabama Crimson Tide (8-1)
Why they could be here: If the Tide didn't start any higher in the first ranking, it's unlikely a home win against LSU on Saturday will boost them above any of the undefeated teams. The head-to-head win will keep them above Georgia, though, as the committee's highest-ranked one-loss team. The road win against the No. 5 Bulldogs is one of the best in the country -- arguably better than any win the teams above them can claim -- but the season-opening loss to Florida State is holding them back. The Oct. 11 win at Mizzou is still good, even if the Tigers fall out of the top 25 this week, and the committee will recognize Bama beat Mizzou when starting quarterback Beau Pribula was healthy. They also have a CFP top 25 win against Tennessee, which had a bye this week. "I'm not sure, when you look at a résumé, anybody had a better stretch of four games," Rhoades said of the Tide on Tuesday. "When you think about Alabama, really, really impressive, two of those wins on the road. Going into Athens, one of the hardest, toughest environments to be able to get out of there with a win. There was certainly discussion about the Florida State loss early on, but just felt like that four-game stretch -- which by the way, historical in the SEC. Nobody has beaten four straight ranked teams without a bye."
Why they could be lower: It would be hard for the committee to justify any movement up or down this week, given the teams around them won, the head-to-head results, and last week's ranking.
Need to know: Alabama's strength of schedule was No. 4 in the country heading into Week 11 -- better than every team ranked ahead of it. The Tide was No. 5, though, in ESPN's Strength of Record metric, trailing the committee's top three teams.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Oklahoma. This is the last ranked opponent Alabama will face.
5. Georgia Bulldogs (8-1)
Why they could be here: Georgia didn't need a second-half surge at Mississippi State, after rallying from a tie or from behind during its previous three games. The committee likes what it sees from Georgia, but it has to account for head-to-head results, which is why Georgia should continue to be sandwiched between Alabama and Ole Miss again on Tuesday night. "I think Gunner Stockton at quarterback has really progressed," Rhoades said last Tuesday. "It certainly feels like they have more confidence in him, doing a lot more with him. Again, he's another maybe similar to Marcel Reed where he can beat you with his arm, he can beat you with his feet. The head-to-head against Ole Miss, obviously we took that into account. We absolutely took into account the loss at home versus Alabama."
Why they could be lower: It would be surprising to see Georgia move on Tuesday night, given nothing drastic happened around them.
Need to know: Georgia will play its last SEC game of the season on Saturday against Texas, as it finishes the month against Charlotte and rival Georgia Tech.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. The Longhorns beat Vanderbilt on Nov. 1 and enter this game on a four-game winning streak. They also had a bye to prepare for the trip to Athens, while Georgia is coming off a road win against Mississippi State.
6. Ole Miss Rebels (9-1)
Why they could be here: A lopsided win against The Citadel isn't going to impress the selection committee, but the Rebels already earned their respect in the first ranking. Ole Miss will still be ranked behind Georgia because of the head-to-head road loss to the Bulldogs on Oct. 18. The Rebels entered Saturday with a slight edge over Texas Tech in Strength of Record, but with greater separation in strength of schedule, where Ole Miss was No. 25 and Texas Tech was No. 58. The committee will also consider the Rebels' road loss to Georgia is a better loss than the Red Raiders' road loss to Arizona State, which has lost two of its past four games.
Why they could be lower: Texas Tech earned a CFP top-10 win on Saturday when it beat previously-undefeated BYU. Ole Miss' best win was Oct. 25 at No. 12 Oklahoma.
Need to know: The 45-10 win against Tulane on Sept. 20 continues to enhance the Rebels' overall record strength, even though it's not a CFP top 25 win. The Green Wave earned an important win at Memphis on Friday, keeping their playoff hopes alive. Tulane also beat Northwestern and Duke this season, and the committee pays attention to opponents' opponents (yes you read that right).
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 at Mississippi State. The Egg Bowl isn't a gimme, even after the Bulldogs were beaten soundly on Saturday by Georgia. A loss could mean a first-round road trip instead of a home game for Ole Miss -- or getting bumped out of the bracket entirely.
7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (9-1)
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders looked like the best team in the Big 12 on Saturday, and the committee will likely reflect that in its second ranking. The double-digit win against previously undefeated BYU is better than Oregon's best win, but the loss to Arizona State could play a role in the committee keeping Texas Tech behind Ole Miss. Still, the committee factors in injuries to key players and the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback Behren Morton (knee) on the road in the close loss to the Sun Devils. "The loss at Arizona State without Behren at quarterback, Arizona State wins that late, so we do talk about quality wins," Rhoades said last Tuesday, "we also talk about quality losses."
Why they could be higher: The selection committee also rewarded Texas Tech for its road win against No. 13 Utah. On Saturday, Texas Tech earned its ninth win by at least 20 points this season, showing the committee its ability to win convincingly consistently. The Red Raiders' defense held BYU to its fewest points in any game over the past two seasons.
Need to know: Texas Tech and BYU are still the most likely matchup in the Big 12 title game. According to ESPN Analytics, Texas Tech has a 93% chance to reach it, BYU is second with a 55% chance, and Cincinnati is third (19%). If BYU wins the Big 12, Texas Tech could claim a regular-season win against the eventual Big 12 champ, which would help boost its résumé and the case for playoff inclusion as the league runner-up.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 29 at West Virginia. The Red Raiders have at least an 80% chance to win their two remaining regular-season games, but this one is slightly more difficult than against UCF because it's on the road at a notoriously difficult venue.
8. Oregon Ducks (8-1)
Why they could be here: The Ducks got a much-needed résumé boost with Saturday's win at Iowa, their first against a CFP top 25 team. Rhoades had said last week that Oregon had the lowest record strength of any team in the committee's top 10. Saturday's win also showed the group some impressive depth and grit with the Ducks' winning on the road in horrible weather and without multiple injured starters, including three of their top receivers. The question is if Iowa will still be a top 25 team on Tuesday now that the Hawkeyes have three losses.
Why they could be higher: Oregon has been passing the eye test, ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency entering Saturday. With the exception of the two close road wins at Iowa and Penn State, the Ducks have dominated their opponents, ranking No. 4 in the country in Game Control -- trailing only Ohio State, Indiana and Texas Tech.
Need to know: Oregon has at least a 70% chance to win each of its remaining games (Minnesota, USC and at Washington), according to ESPN Analytics, but it's still unlikely to reach the Big Ten title game. The head-to-head home loss to the Hoosiers is a major reason why.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 vs. USC. The Trojans are 7-2 with one Big Ten loss and opportunities to climb in the ranking. A win at Oregon would flip the script in the conference pecking order, and if USC can beat Iowa on Saturday, this game will be the Trojans' Super Bowl.
9. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-2)
Why they could be here: Notre Dame had no trouble dismantling an overmatched Navy team that was playing without injured starting quarterback Blake Horvath. It was Notre Dame's seventh straight win since starting the season 0-2. The committee considered that those two losses in last week's first ranking were by a total of four points to two CFP top 25 teams, including No. 3 and unbeaten Texas A&M. The committee was also impressed with Notre Dame's 34-24 win against USC on Oct. 18, and that will continue to resonate with the Trojans now 7-2 after Friday's win against Northwestern. Rhoades said Notre Dame had been "much, much better defensively" of late. "You look at their backfield, Jadarian Price, Jeremiyah Love, probably the best backfield in the country when you think about one-two punch," Rhoades said. "Going into the Southern Cal game, they lost their starting center for the year, and they were able to overcome that and run for a bunch of yards, again, against Southern Cal."
Why they could be lower: This all depends on how far BYU drops. The Cougars will most likely be at No. 10 above Notre Dame and the two-loss pack of teams, or at No. 12, and below OU and Texas but above Utah. If the Cougars drop to No. 12, Notre Dame would get a slight promotion by default this week.
Need to know: Notre Dame still has the best chance of any team to win out, according to ESPN Analytics.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Pitt. The Panthers might be playing the best of any team in the ACC right now during a five-game winning streak. They also had a bye week to prepare for the Irish.
10. Texas Longhorns (7-2)
Why they could be here: The Longhorns had a bye after earning a top-12 spot in the first ranking. Texas has won four straight, including CFP top 25 wins against Oklahoma and Vanderbilt. Vandy needed overtime to beat a 4-6 Auburn team on Saturday, but that win should continue to help the Longhorns' résumé. The Oct. 4 loss at Florida remains a stain on that résumé, though. The 14-7 season-opening road loss to No. 1-ranked Ohio State isn't going to be what keeps Texas out of the playoff.
Why they could be lower: It depends on how far BYU falls after losing 29-7 to Texas Tech on Saturday. BYU's lone win against a CFP top 25 team was on Oct. 18 at home against Utah, 24-21. BYU entered Week 11 ranked No. 45 in strength of schedule, while Texas was No. 11. BYU didn't lose to Florida, though -- its lone loss is to a CFP Top-10 team.
Need to know: No team has a better opportunity to impress the selection committee in the final three weeks of the season than Texas, which will face two CFP top-five teams in No. 5 Georgia and No. 3 Texas A&M. If Texas splits those games and finishes as a three-loss team, it could still be ranked in the top 12 but might not make the playoff. It would be a similar situation to what happened to three-loss Alabama last year, which finished No. 11 on Selection Day, but was excluded from the playoff to make room for ACC champion Clemson. If Texas can win both of those games, it could jump Notre Dame and put the Irish in a similarly precarious position at No. 11 or No. 12.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 28 vs. Texas A&M. It's certainly not going to be easy to win at Georgia on Saturday, but the Longhorns had a bye week to prepare for it while the Bulldogs were on the road. Texas will face in-state rival Texas A&M on a Friday night in the regular-season finale, the second top-five team it will face in a three-week span.
11. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2)
Why they could be here: The Sooners had a bye, but are stuck behind Texas because of the head-to-head loss to the Longhorns on Oct. 11. Wins against Tennessee and Michigan, though, have them within range of making the 12-team field, and it helped that the committee ranked the Vols No. 25 as their highest-ranked three-loss team.
Why they could be lower: The selection committee probably wouldn't shuffle this order, considering Texas and Oklahoma were off this week, but OU could stay at 12 in the second ranking if the committee keeps BYU in the top 10.
Need to know: If the playoff were today, Oklahoma would still be bumped out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the ACC champion, which is still projected to be ranked outside of the committee's top 12 but guaranteed a spot as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Alabama. The Sooners will be in a must-win situation in Tuscaloosa, as the rest of their résumé likely won't be enough to compensate for a third loss given that they're already on the bubble in the eyes of the committee.
12. BYU Cougars (8-1)
Why they could be here: The Cougars have a good win (Oct. 18 against Utah) and an eyebrow raising defeat (Saturday). Texas Tech is a good team, but how BYU lost to the Red Raiders will matter. BYU was outplayed and its offense was stifled: 67 rushing yards, three turnovers, 4.9 yards per pass, while converting just 3 of 14 third downs. A drop behind two-loss Texas and OU isn't unreasonable. Utah is the only opponent BYU has defeated with less than four losses. BYU entered Saturday ranked No. 45 in ESPN's strength of schedule metric -- significantly behind Notre Dame (23), Texas (11) and Oklahoma (13). The loss opens the door for the committee to reevaluate BYU's entire body of work. The committee would still likely honor BYU's head-to-head win against Utah, though, giving the Cougars a safety net to stay in the top 12.
Why they could be higher: It was BYU's first loss of the season, on the road, and to a top-10 team leading the nation in defensive efficiency.
Need to know: If BYU runs the table and reaches the Big 12 title game, it would clinch a spot in the playoff with a win. What happens if the Cougars finish as a two-loss runner-up with a second lopsided loss to Texas Tech? Where they're ranked in the committee's second ranking on Tuesday night will provide some insight and show how much margin for error they might have. If they land at No. 12 on Selection Day, even as the Big 12 runner-up, they'd be excluded to make room for the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, which is now projected to be South Florida out of the American Conference.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 22 at Cincinnati. The Big 12 race isn't over yet, and Cincinnati might have something to say about it -- unless the Bearcats play the way they did during a 45-14 loss at Utah. Cincinnati still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game behind Texas Tech and BYU.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Alabama
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 South Florida (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Georgia Tech (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Texas at No. 7 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 South Florida/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Alabama
No. 11 Georgia Tech/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Texas/No. 7 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
