The Playbook: Lineup locks, Shadow Reports for Week 9

Welcome to The Playbook for Week 9, which kicks off Thursday with the Ravens at the Dolphins.

This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.

Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we're able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.

• If you want a more detailed look at some of this data, be sure to check out the weekly Shadow Reports: WR vs. CB Cheat Sheet. You can also take a look at the latest update of each team's rest-of-season strength of schedule.

All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.

(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)

BAL-MIA | CHI-CIN | MIN-DET | CAR-GB | DEN-HOU | ATL-NE | SF-NYG
IND-PIT | LAC-TEN | NO-LAR | JAX-LV | KC-BUF | SEA-WAS | ARI-DAL

Baltimore Ravens @ Miami Dolphins

Projected score: Ravens 27, Dolphins 26

Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, De'Von Achane, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Jaylen Waddle

Fantasy scoop: Waddle (26) and Achane (25) unsurprisingly lead the Dolphins in targets in the four games since Tyreek Hill's season-ending injury, but it may surprise you that Malik Washington (24) is just behind. The 2024 sixth-round pick saw five-plus targets in all four games, hitting a career-high eight in Week 7. Washington found the end zone last week and posted season-high marks in yardage (36) and fantasy points (13.6). Obviously, those marks aren't very high and confirm that Washington is not yet a reliable fantasy option despite the boost in usage. The Ravens have struggled against receivers this season, though that may not be the case moving forward now that they're much healthier. Washington is no more than a deep-league flex lottery ticket.

Over/under: 52.6 (5th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 55% (10th highest)

Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals

Projected score: Bears 28, Bengals 26

Lineup locks: D'Andre Swift, Ja'Marr Chase, Rome Odunze, Tee Higgins

Fantasy scoop: The Bengals remain committed to a backfield committee, and that was on display on Sunday when Chase Brown handled 12 carries and three targets on 31 snaps, compared to nine carries and one target on 25 snaps for Samaje Perine. Though he's playing a lesser role than he did out of the gate, Brown's stock is on the rise, as he's now delivered 100-plus scrimmage yards in consecutive games, including Sunday's two-TD, 25.5-point showing.

Brown's improved play in the Joe Flacco-led offense is enough to get him in the RB2 mix this week. Plus, Chicago has allowed eight TDs, 5.2 yards per carry and a league-high 93% catch rate to RBs. However, there's still some risk here, as he's cleared 13.1 fantasy points only once this season. Perine is also fresh off a big game (100 yards and one TD), but he's yet to clear 10 touches in a game. He remains best left on benches.

Shadow Report: Expect DJ Turner to shadow Odunze this week. Turner has emerged as the Bengals' top corner, having traveled with Travis Hunter (Hunter scored 5.2 fantasy points in the game), Justin Jefferson (12.5), Courtland Sutton (19.1), Jameson Williams (1.9), Romeo Doubs (10.5) and DK Metcalf (8.0). Those receivers averaged 9.5 fantasy PPG, with only Sutton clearing 12.5. Turner has clearly done a nice job, with seven of the top eight WR performances against the Bengals coming from players he didn't shadow. Odunze can be downgraded slightly, whereas the team's secondary targets can be upgraded (the Bengals have allowed the fourth-most passing yards and TDs this season).

Over/under: 54 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Bears 54% (12th highest)

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

Projected score: Lions 28, Vikings 18

Lineup locks: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Sam LaPorta

Fantasy scoop: Aaron Jones returned from IR last week and immediately retook lead back duties in Minnesota. Jones played 53% of the snaps and handled five carries and four targets in what was a very low-volume game for the Vikings offense (47 snaps). Jordan Mason, meanwhile, was limited to just four carries and one target on 16 snaps. This figures to remain a full-on committee, with Mason as the lead ball-carrier and goal-line option and Jones not far behind in carries and the featured passing-game back.

Week 9 presents a tough matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Especially with Minnesota a substantial underdog, Mason is way off the fantasy radar, whereas Jones is a low-ceiling flex.

Over/under: 46 (10th highest)
Win probability: Lions 85% (5th highest)

Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers

Projected score: Packers 30, Panthers 18

Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Tetairoa McMillan, Tucker Kraft

Fantasy scoop: Jordan Love put up 28.3 fantasy points on Sunday, his most since he delivered a career-high 28.4 in Week 17 of the 2023 season. Love now has two top-5 fantasy outings this season, though they represent his only finishes better than 11th and he's finished 16th or lower four times. Love is playing well, but his passing output has been all over the map and, while he's adding more as a rusher than he did in 2024, he's still provided only 109 yards and zero TDs with his legs. Love remains a solid QB2 and is a streaming option this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed 22-plus fantasy points to QBs in four of its past five games.

Over/under: 48 (8th highest)
Win probability: Packers 86% (3rd highest)

Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans

Projected score: Chargers 29, Titans 17

Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Kimani Vidal, Ladd McConkey, Keenan Allen

Fantasy scoop: Quentin Johnston is eyeing a rebound following an ugly Week 8 showing in which he was held without a single target. With Los Angeles working in rookie Tre' Harris more often (mainly as a blocker), Johnston was limited to 53% of the offensive snaps after playing 86% during his first six games. The doughnut is the latest in a string of duds from Johnston, who, after averaging 9.3 targets and 19.9 fantasy points per game during his first four games, has totaled 10 targets and 17.9 points in his past three outings. Johnston remains a candidate for the occasional big play but, with the big dip in usage, he's much riskier than he was out of the gate and is no longer a lineup lock.

Shadow Report: The good news for Johnston is that we're upgrading the Chargers receivers against a Titans defense that is allowing 9.7 yards per target (second highest) and a 75% catch rate (highest) to receivers this season. Tennessee is already shorthanded at corner with L'Jarius Sneed on IR and having traded primary slot man Roger McCreary to the Rams on Monday. McConkey, Allen and Johnston are set to battle with Jalyn Armour-Davis, Darrell Baker Jr. and a to-be-determined replacement in the slot. This calls for a big boost in value for the Chargers pass game.

Over/under: 46.3 (9th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 88% (2nd highest)

Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots

Projected score: Patriots 27, Falcons 16

Lineup locks: Drake Maye, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Stefon Diggs

Fantasy scoop: Kayshon Boutte found the end zone again on Sunday and now has four scores in his past three outings. This, after he found paydirt a total of just four times in his first 25 NFL games. Despite the recent run, Boutte is not yet a reliable flex option. He's cleared five targets only once, and that was way back in Week 1. Boutte sits fifth among receivers in TDs (five) but 58th in targets (31), 49th in catches (23) and 22nd in yardage (431). Boutte is a candidate for some serious regression to the mean and is no more than a boom/bust deep-league flex flier.

Shadow Report: If London returns from injury this week, he's a candidate for shadow coverage by Christian Gonzalez. After missing time to open the season and then spending a few weeks playing right corner, Gonzalez shadowed Jerry Jeudy in Week 8, holding Cleveland's top receiver without a single catch. New England's pass defense hasn't been overly exceptional, though no receiver has reached 18 fantasy points against the Patriots this season. Especially with the potential for a Gonzalez shadow, expectations for London should be lowered.

Over/under: 43.7 (12th highest)
Win probability: Patriots 85% (4th highest)

San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants

Projected score: 49ers 26, Giants 25

Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Wan'Dale Robinson, George Kittle

Fantasy scoop: Cam Skattebo (ankle) is out for the season, which means Tracy will return to lead-back duties for New York. With Skattebo departing after 10 snaps on Sunday, Tracy soaked up 10 carries and three targets on 32 snaps, compared to two carries and one target on eight snaps for Devin Singletary. We got a lengthy look at a Tracy/Singletary backfield last season, with Tracy taking over as the Giants' de facto lead back in Week 5 and going on to play 11 "full" games with Singletary also active.

During that span, Tracy played 67% of the snaps and handled 13.2 carries and 3.5 targets per game. He reached 65 yards in nine of the 11 games and averaged 12.2 fantasy PPG, which ranked 23rd among RBs. Tracy is playing in a better offense this time around, which puts him on the RB2 radar, especially this week against a struggling 49ers defense that is allowing 26.5 fantasy PPG to RBs over its past five games.

Over/under: 51.3 (6th highest)
Win probability: 49ers 52% (13th highest)

Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected Score: Colts 31, Steelers 25

Lineup locks: Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor, Jaylen Warren, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Tyler Warren

Fantasy scoop: Jones has finished better than 10th among QBs in fantasy points once in his last six outings, but he's shown a solid floor as of late (22-plus points in three straight) and should be locked into lineups this week. Jones has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four consecutive games and sits fourth in the league in passing yards. This week, he'll benefit from facing a struggling Pittsburgh defense that has surrendered the most completions and passing yardage, as well as the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Both Joe Flacco and Jordan Love reached 26.0 points against Pittsburgh over the past two weeks.

Shadow Report: We're also upgrading Colts receivers against a Steelers defense that looks good on paper, but that has allowed the most catches and yards to receivers this season. Pittsburgh has surrendered the fifth-most fantasy points to the position on the season, including the most over the last four weeks. Pittman gets a boost, whereas Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are deep-league sleepers.

Over/under: 56.4 (Highest)
Win probability: Colts 70% (6th highest)

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans

Projected score: Broncos 22, Texans 22

Lineup locks: Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton

Shadow Report: Derek Stingley Jr. is a good bet to shadow Sutton this week. The standout corner hasn't been needed in a shadow capacity in recent weeks, but earlier in the season he traveled with Davante Adams (Adams scored 7.2 fantasy points in the game), Mike Evans (10.6) and Brian Thomas Jr. (7.5). Sutton has put together solid days even when shadowed this season, so while we're downgrading him a bit, he remains a WR2/3. Secondary Denver receivers should be avoided against a Houston defense that has allowed a league-low 56% catch rate and only three TDs to the position this season. That includes Troy Franklin, who scored 26.9 points last week in an A-plus matchup against Dallas after averaging 9.9 per game during Weeks 1-7.

Shadow Report: Pat Surtain II is out for about a month, which is good news for Collins, as he'll dodge his shadow coverage (assuming he returns from a concussion suffered in Week 7). Of course, even with Surtain out, this matchup doesn't figure to be a walk in the park. Denver's overall pass defense has been as good as expected, sitting third best in EPA against the pass and having allowed two TDs, a league-low in yards per target (6.3) and the second-fewest fantasy points to WRs. Denver has yet to allow a receiver to reach 20 fantasy points in a game this season. Collins and the rest of the Houston passing game should be downgraded slightly.

Over/under: 43.8 (11th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 52% (Lowest)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Las Vegas Raiders

Projected score: Jaguars 23, Raiders 18

Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Travis Etienne Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers

Fantasy scoop: When we last saw the Jaguars in action, Travis Hunter finally had his offensive breakout game, posting an 8-101-1 receiving line on 13 targets. All four of those numbers were career highs, and his 24.1 fantasy points marked his first game above 9.4. Perhaps the primary reason for optimism here is that Hunter played a career-high 86% of the offensive snaps and didn't play at all on defense until garbage time. Jacksonville appears committed to Hunter's offensive ascent, which positions him as a viable WR3, especially this week against the Raiders. Speaking of which ...

Shadow Report: Upgrade Jaguars receivers against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fourth-most catches and fantasy points to receivers, as well as the seventh-most yardage and nine TDs. Thomas should remain locked in lineups, whereas aforementioned Hunter also makes for a viable starter.

Over/under: 40.2 (13th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 67% (7th highest)

New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

Projected score: Rams 26, Saints 12

Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, Chris Olave

Fantasy scoop: Though he remains the lead back in New Orleans, especially with Kendre Miller done for the season, Alvin Kamara is tough to justify as a lineup lock right now. Working in the Saints' struggling offense, Kamara hasn't reached 13.0 fantasy points in any game since he delivered a season-high 16.0 points in Week 2 and he hasn't scored a touchdown since the season opener.

Kamara hasn't done much as a rusher as of late (under 32 yards in four straight) and he's no longer a major factor in the passing game. His 11% target share is nearly half his prior career rate of 20% and he's been held under 30 yards in seven of eight games. The Rams have allowed only one RB touchdown this season, and only Christian McCaffrey has scored more than 14.6 points against them, leaving Kamara as no more than a back-end RB2.

Over/under: 38 (Lowest)
Win probability: Rams 91% (Highest)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills

Projected score: Chiefs 28, Bills 26

Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, James Cook III, Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce

Fantasy scoop: Khalil Shakir is trending up after delivering a 6-88-1 receiving line on seven targets against Carolina on Sunday. Shakir's 20.8 fantasy points were his most since Week 14 of last season. The primary reason for optimism here is that Shakir has seen his target share increase from 15.5% during Weeks 1-3 to 26.7% in his past four games. The latter is closer to his 23.3% rate when he finished 35th among receivers in fantasy PPG despite finding the end zone only four times.

Shakir already has three TDs this season, although that pace may not be sustainable considering his expected TD total (1.1) and just one end zone target. Nonetheless, Shakir has re-emerged as Allen's top target, which is enough to position him as a WR3, even in a tough matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the second-fewest yards to receivers this season.

Over/under: 53.8 (4th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 58% (9th highest)

Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanders

Projected score: Seahawks 26, Commanders 25

Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Deebo Samuel

Fantasy scoop: It's just not happening for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. The rookie running back has taken on lead-back duties in Washington, but he's still managed to fall short of 6.0 fantasy points in three consecutive games. We did get a glance of his upside in Week 5 (150 yards, 2 TDs and 27.0 fantasy points), but he's been limited to a total of 125 yards, 0 TDs and 12.5 points over the past three weeks.

Week 9 presents a very tough matchup for Croskey-Merritt, as Seattle has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards, a league-low 3.0 yards per carry and only two rushing TDs to backs. Seattle has allowed the most catches to backs, but that doesn't help Croskey-Merritt, who has yet to see more than two targets in a game and has a total of 6 receiving yards on four targets over the past three weeks. "Bill" is no more than a flex option and is best left on benches.

Over/under: 51.2 (7th highest)
Win probability: Seahawks 55% (11th highest)

Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys

Projected score: Cowboys 29, Cardinals 26

Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, Jake Ferguson

Fantasy scoop: When we last saw the Cardinals in action, Bam Knight put up 64 yards on 17 touches (both were his highest totals since Week 14 of the 2022 season). Previously operating in a backfield timeshare with Michael Carter and, to a lesser extent, Emari Demercado, Knight has yet to play half the snaps in a game and has finished in the 9.4-to-12.4 fantasy point range in all three games with Trey Benson sidelined. Knight gets a boost this week from a matchup against a Dallas defense that has allowed the second-most yards and fantasy points, as well as 10 TDs (fifth most) to RBs this season. Arizona's lead back is an RB2/flex option.

Shadow Report: Upgrade Arizona's wide receivers against a Dallas defense that has allowed the most touchdowns (15) and fantasy points to the position this season. Dallas is dead last in defensive EPA against the pass and is allowing a league-high 9.9 yards per target to receivers. The damage includes three TDs and 51.4 points allowed to Denver's receivers last week. With Trevon Diggs on IR, Dallas remains shorthanded in the secondary, which is good news for Harrison and company.

Over/Uunder: 55.3 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 60% (8th highest)