WNBA playoff predictions: Can anyone prevent Lynx-Aces Finals matchup?

The Minnesota Lynx enter the playoffs as the favorites to win the championship. But what might stand in the way of the No. 1 seed? Who are their biggest challengers? And which players will have the most impact when all four first-round series tip off Sunday (1 p.m. ET, ESPN)?

ESPN surveyed WNBA experts to answer those questions and dissect the biggest storylines heading into the postseason. The Lynx were the most popular pick to win the title, and the experts unanimously voted for a WNBA Finals matchup between Minnesota and the No. 2 seed Las Vegas Aces -- which would set up a potentially epic showdown between MVP candidates Napheesa Collier and A'ja Wilson.

How far might the injury-riddled Indiana Fever go? How many first-round series will go the distance with the format moving to a three-game series, guaranteeing every team a home game?

And what do the experts think of the defending WNBA champion New York Liberty, who are the No. 5 seed and won't have home-court in the playoffs?

Let's take a look at how we expect the playoffs to shake out.

Jump to: Playoff predictions

MORE: Strengths, flaws for every team | Top 25 players | Schedule

Minnesota has been the best team this season. What are the biggest reasons the Lynx might (or might not) win the title?

Myron Medcalf: The Aces are the biggest reasons the Lynx might not win a championship. I believe Napheesa Collier is the MVP, but A'ja Wilson can reach a level that no other player can match and we're witnessing that now. A lot of people thought the Aces wouldn't win the title after their rough start to the season, but they've found their chemistry at the right time. And that's the greatest threat standing between the Lynx and a championship.

Kevin Pelton: Size can still make the Lynx uncomfortable. They're below average on the defensive glass, ranking 10th on a percentage basis, and playing stronger backup posts Jessica Shepard and Maria Kliundikova takes away some of the five-out spacing that makes Minnesota's starting five so potent.

Andre Snellings: The Lynx are a championship-level team. The biggest reason Minnesota won't win is if the Aces are playing at their top level. Las Vegas has the league's most dominant interior player in addition to three perimeter players capable of controlling the game. That inside-out synergy is tough for any defense, including the Lynx, to handle in a series.

Kendra Andrews: Collier has said the Lynx are better than they were a year ago, in part because of what they experienced in the 2024 playoffs, including losing in five games in the Finals. They dominated this regular season, and head into the postseason with consistency and reliability that the other teams lack. But incredibly dominant regular-season teams can fizzle out. (The 2015-16 Golden State Warriors and 2024-25 Cleveland Cavaliers come to mind in the NBA.) So, the Lynx need to capitalize on their regular-season run and guard against running out of steam down the stretch.

Alexa Philippou: Six of the past eight WNBA champions were No. 1 seeds -- including the 2020 bubble season that lacked home-court advantage -- and Minnesota has been far and away the best team in the league this year. At full strength, Minnesota is the team to beat. But with Collier coming off an ankle injury and DiJonai Carrington dealing with a shoulder issue (she last played Sept. 1), the Lynx might not be as heavily favored.

If the Lynx don't win the title, which team will?

Pelton: The Liberty can be a championship team if New York can find some cohesion. As Michael Voepel detailed as part of our playoff preview, New York has been elite with all three stars on the court, and the addition of Emma Meesseman allows coach Sandy Brondello to employ better versions of the big lineups that helped the Liberty outlast Minnesota last October.

Medcalf: Coach Becky Hammon's decision to bring Jewell Loyd off the bench changes the dynamic of the Aces. The talent drop-off is less significant when they turn to their reserves, who are now led by a player who averaged 24.7 points only two seasons ago. Combine that with Wilson and the momentum this team has built, and it's easy to see why the Aces are in the championship conversation with the Lynx.

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A'ja Wilson's double-double helps propel Aces to 16th straight win

A'ja Wilson finishes with 23 points and 19 rebounds as the Aces defeat the Sparks 103-75.

Snellings: The addition of NaLyssa Smith shored up the Aces' interior at both ends of the court, and Loyd has found her level coming off the bench. With Wilson reaffirming her status as the best player in the league, and Jackie Young playing at an All-WNBA level, the Aces are built for postseason success.

Philippou: It feels as if either the Lynx, Aces or Liberty -- in that order -- will be crowned champions. That's no disrespect to the Dream or Mercury, who both have had fantastic seasons. But the players on the Lynx, Aces and Liberty have a lot of postseason experience playing together, which can make a big difference.

Michael Voepel: The Aces' confidence is intense after ending the regular season on a 16-game win streak, which they needed to secure the No. 2 seed. So, they have been at the highest level for more than a month. If they can keep that up, the momentum can carry them to a third title. And as my colleagues said, if it's not the Lynx or the Aces, we are likely looking at a repeat for the Liberty, who might be at their best in the postseason.

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Napheesa Collier joins elite 50/40/90 club in Lynx finale

Napheesa Collier seals record with two 3-pointers against the Valkyries, becoming the second WNBA player with a 50/40/90 season.

Which player might have the single biggest impact on the postseason?

Pelton: Jewell Loyd is a fascinating X factor for Las Vegas. Loyd averaged more points in fewer minutes after moving to the bench, shooting 42% from the field and 40.5% on 3s compared with 36% and 35%, respectively, as a starter. If Loyd continues her recent shooting success, the Aces will likely make it back to the Finals.

Eric Moody: Natisha Hiedeman has thrived coming off the bench for the Lynx, particularly down the stretch of the season. Over the last six games of the regular season, she averaged 16.3 points and 4.2 assists in just 25.7 minutes. Playing alongside the Lynx's other talented players has allowed her to face less defensive pressure and helped her shine. With that momentum, she's well-positioned to be a key contributor this postseason.

Medcalf: Collier's defensive presence. To win a title, the Lynx will have to fight through some elite forwards and centers. The offensive numbers generate the headlines for Collier, but how she handles defensive matchups -- and avoids foul trouble -- will determine the Lynx's fate.

Philippou: Historically, New York has reached a championship ceiling when it gets the best out of Jonquel Jones. She was Finals MVP when New York won last year, and the Liberty are 34-0 in regular-season games when she records a double-double. Jones is a matchup challenge, in general, and will have the advantage inside against Phoenix in the first round and, if New York advances, vs. Minnesota in the semifinals. While the Liberty still rely significantly on Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart, it's difficult to see them repeating without a dominant Jones.

Voepel: Watch out for Aces point guard Chelsea Gray, who was the Finals MVP in 2022. She was fully healthy this season after missing 13 games last season while recovering from a foot injury suffered in the 2023 WNBA Finals. Gray averaged 5.4 assists this season, but that jumped to 7.8 over the last 10 games of the regular season. Gray has a history of being at her best in the biggest games, so we'll see if that's the case in this year's playoffs.

Playoff predictions

Who wins each best-of-three first-round series?

(1) Minnesota Lynx vs. (8) Golden State Valkyries

Kendra Andrews: Lynx in 2

Sean Hurd: Lynx in 2

Myron Medcalf: Lynx in 2

Eric Moody: Lynx in 2

Neil Paine: Lynx in 2

Kevin Pelton: Lynx in 2

Alexa Philippou: Lynx in 2

Andre Snellings: Lynx in 2

Michael Voepel: Lynx in 2

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2:20

How 'Ballhalla' became a fortress for the Valkyries

Kendra Andrews introduces "Defending The Bay" about the Golden State Valkyries home arena.

(2) Las Vegas Aces vs. (7) Seattle Storm

Andrews: Aces in 3

Hurd: Aces in 3

Medcalf: Aces in 2

Moody: Aces in 3

Paine: Aces in 2

Pelton: Aces in 3

Philippou: Aces in 3

Snellings: Aces in 2

Voepel: Aces in 2

(3) Atlanta Dream vs. (6) Indiana Fever

Andrews: Dream in 2

Hurd: Dream in 2

Medcalf: Dream in 2

Moody: Dream in 2

Paine: Dream in 2

Pelton: Dream in 2

Philippou: Dream in 2

Snellings: Dream in 2

Voepel: Dream in 3

(4) Phoenix Mercury vs. (5) New York Liberty

Andrews: Liberty in 3

Hurd: Mercury in 3

Medcalf: Liberty in 3

Moody: Liberty in 3

Paine: Liberty in 3

Pelton: Liberty in 3

Philippou: Liberty in 3

Snellings: Liberty in 3

Voepel: Liberty in 3

Which teams will meet in the WNBA Finals?

Andrews: Lynx vs. Aces

Hurd: Lynx vs. Aces

Medcalf: Lynx vs. Aces

Moody: Lynx vs. Aces

Paine: Lynx vs. Aces

Pelton: Lynx vs. Aces

Philippou: Lynx vs. Aces

Snellings: Lynx vs. Aces

Voepel: Lynx vs. Aces

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Who should win WNBA MVP this season?

Monica McNutt explains why this season's WNBA MVP race is so close between A'ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier.

Which team will win the championship?

Andrews: Lynx in 7

Hurd: Lynx in 6

Medcalf: Lynx in 7

Moody: Aces in 7

Paine: Lynx in 7

Pelton: Lynx in 6

Philippou: Lynx in 6

Snellings: Aces in 6

Voepel: Aces in 7

Which player will be Finals MVP?

Andrews: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Hurd: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Medcalf: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Moody: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

Paine: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Pelton: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Philippou: Napheesa Collier, Minnesota Lynx

Snellings: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces

Voepel: A'ja Wilson, Las Vegas Aces